Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
Australia Medium Grain Rice #1 $ N/A    Egypt 101 #2 $760    Egypt 178 #2 Rice $730    EU Prices Baldo €660    EU Prices LG-A Ariete 5% €550    EU Prices MG Lotto 5% €500    EU Prices RG Balilla 5% €500    Russia Rapan $ 700    USA Jupiter Paddy $375    USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480    USA Jupiter Rice $630    USA Calrose #1 $830   

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Record world harvest for new crop long grain
The statistical outlook for rice presented by USDA this week, is not encouraging, especially for new crop long grain.
The old crop long grain market is in the doldrums but the situation is not as bad as the market suggests. Demand continues steady and at a level that promises to clean out old crop supplies. Problem is—while demand is enough to clean out old crop supply, it is not enough to pressure price. With time running out, pressure builds on uncommitted supply and old crop price.
For new crop long grain, USDA and United Nations FAO are predicting a record world harvest. That might be—but those predictions assume good weather everywhere in the coming year. That might be a questionable assumption, considering the weather extremes we have seen in recent months. At the base of the predictions of a record harvest is assumption India will have a normal or superior rice harvest in 2010. India’s weather experts are predicting this year’s monsoon rainfall, which supplies 60% of water for India’s big summer rice crop, wiill be 98% of normal. A year ago they predicted the monsoon will be 96% of normal—but India had one of its worst droughts ever. Could they be wrong again this year?
We believe it is far too early to predict with confidence a record world rice harvest in 2010.
As for medium grain, again in the coming market year, the US will be the dominant, almost sole, supplier in the world market. Unlike the USDA, we see a smaller medium grain harvest in the US this year---much smaller in the South, slightly less in California. Carryin will be a bit larger this year, but total supply will be manageable—smaller than last year. Export demand is expected to be about the same—although there is question as to whether Turkey will buy as much.

Otherwise, the market is fairly quiet and the undertone somewhat steady to slightly softer.
Thai Exports
Jan. 1-Apr. 23, 2010: 2,545,941 mt
Jan. 1-Apr. 23, 2009: 2,557,689 mt
Jan. 1-Apr. 27, 2008: 3,909,911 mt

MGR Archive 16.5.2010
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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