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USDA estimate carryover of old crop medium/short grain was reduced—down
Supply/Demand estimates for rice issued by USDA included first figures for the new rice crop as well as updated figures for the 2009 harvest. The new estimates are neutral to bullish for old crop rice but bearish for the new crop.
Re old crop: USDA reduced the carryover estimate for long grain at July 31, 2010 to 13.2 mil cwt rough basis—which is one million cwt below the estimate a month ago, and puts carryover at near a clean out level. That coincides with information we hear that uncommitted old crop long grain rough rice is at a low level in all areas.
The USDA estimate for carryover of old crop medium/short grain also was reduced—down a significant 2.6 mil cwt to 13.2 mil cwt rough basis at July 31, 2010. That is a bit higher than we predict and a bit more than needed, but is a big change from previous bearish USDA estimates. All in all the latest USDA estimates for both long and medium/short grain indicate there won’t be a bearish supply of old crop rice to be carried into the new crop year.
USDA figures for the new crop year (August 1, 2010 to July 31, 2011) are not as hopeful.
USDA projects the long grain harvest of 2010 rice at 210,300,000 cwt—up a whopping 19,500,000 cwt from the 2009 long grain harvest estimate of 190,800,000 cwt. We expected the long grain harvest to be up, but not that much. USDA predicts long grain exports for the new crop will be up 4 mil cwt to 76 mil cwt rough basis.
The killer in USDA’s new crop long grain estimates—a big jump in estimated carryover. USDA projects long grain carryover at 28.3 mil cwt rough basis at the end of the market year, at July 31, 2011. That sized carryover would be almost double the estimated carryover for the 2009 harvest.
In new crop estimates for medium/short grain, USDA puts the 2010 harvest of medium/short grain at about the same as the 2009 harvest—67,000,000 cwt. We question it will be that high—with a much lower harvest expected in the South, and slightly less in California. USDA predicts exports of medium/short grain in 2010-11 will be down 2 mil cwt rough basis, and that along with a larger carryin of 2010, USDA predicts carryover of 2010 medium/short grain at 20.1 mil cwt, compared to 13.2 mil cwt for the 2009 crop.
In evaluating the new USDA estimates, keep in mind that the figures are based on factors as USDA analysts sees them at the present time and lots of things can and probably will happen to change the outlook.
Adding to the bearish outlook for long grain are predictions by USDA and the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization that world rice production in 2010/11 will increase to a record level in 2010. USDA estimates world production at 459.7 mil metric tons rough basis—an increase of 17.6 mil tons over 2009-10.
For further analysis see Analysis and Projections section.
MGR Archive 16.5.2010
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