Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
Australia Medium Grain Rice #1 $ N/A    Egypt 101 #2 $760    Egypt 178 #2 Rice $730    EU Prices Baldo €660    EU Prices LG-A Ariete 5% €550    EU Prices MG Lotto 5% €500    EU Prices RG Balilla 5% €500    Russia Rapan $ 700    USA Jupiter Paddy $375    USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480    USA Jupiter Rice $630    USA Calrose #1 $830   

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Supplies pressure medium-grain rice
All of the increase in production over last year’s crop is in medium-grain rice, according to Childs. “Long grain production is actually projected down a little bit. Medium-grain area expanded both in California and the South, with Southern medium grain production more than doubling. If it weren’t for weather problems, the southern medium grain acreage would probably have been even higher.”

Louisiana and Arkansas accounted for most of the medium-grain increase over 2008. Arkansas planted over 200,000 acres in medium-grain rice in 2009. On the downside, this has led to big supplies and ending stocks for medium-grain rice.

All-rice ending stocks are projected at 43 million hundredweight, the largest since 1986-87, “which was a year when we had extraordinarily low prices, probably around $4 to $5 a hundredweight,” Childs said. “The buildup is almost all in medium- and short-grain, which has about a 30 percent stocks-to-use ratio.”

Childs also stressed that “it’s very difficult to expand global trade of short- and medium-grain rice. Once Japan, Taiwan and Korea make their WTO commitments, they won’t purchase any more rice regardless of price. So it’s a small market.”

Childs says domestic rice consumption is expected to be a record in 2009-10, “mostly driven by larger population. Per capita consumption is mostly flat, maybe rising a third of a pound. Medium-and short-grain rice will account for all of the expansion in consumption.”

U.S. rice exports are projected to increase by about 4 percent over last year, Childs said. December projections include a million hundredweight increase in exports from the previous month in medium- and short-grain rice.

Childs says medium-grain exports are a near-record due largely to a drought in Australia and export restrictions in Egypt. “So two major competitors are either out of the market or they are shipping very little rice. The United States is the only supplier of medium-grain rice into the global market. The other suppliers, like Europe, are way too high-cost.”

Childs says Egyptian rice producers “are facing severe water constraints, and its government is restricting exports to encourage more efficient use of water. Its long-term potential is unknown.”

Childs said the pace of long-grain exports has been lagging as of late, but added that the potential for sales of 120,000 tons of rice to Iraq could go a long way toward meeting export goals.

Increased rice sales are also expected into Mexico and Central America, the largest and most stable of U.S. export markets. Sales have also been picked up in Panama, a non-traditional buyer of U.S. rice. Turkey has also come into the market for U.S. rice.

U.S. imports continue to grow, but are not projected to be a record in 2009-10. All the growth will in aromatic, long-grain rice, with Thailand supplying about 70 percent of U.S. imports. “India and Pakistan supply mostly Basmati rice. It’s very expensive rice, well over $1,000 a ton, probably three times U.S. prices. Long-term, we see imports increasing at a faster pace than the domestic market.”
MGR Archive 17.12.2009
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Russia Rapan $ 700
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USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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