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Kazakhstan’s 2007 wheat production
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Kazakhstan’s MY2007/08 grain production is expected to decline by 2.5 MMT after last year’s bumper crops. The official forecast is 14.5 MMT of grain, including 12 MMT of wheat, assuming normal weather conditions in the growing season. Grain production area is expected to remain unchanged at 14.2 million hectares, but specialists assume that wheat will areas will be reduced by 100,000 hectares (about 1 percent of total) and that barley, buckwheat, corn and oat areas will increase slightly due to higher local demand in feed grain. Winter snowfall and spring rainfall provided adequate moisture for crop development, but timely summer rainfall will be critical for the final harvest. According to the long term weather forecast, the level of summer rainfalls is anticipated to be lower than last year and can cause lower yields in the major grain producing regions. At the same time, farmers procured higher quality planting seeds this year and they have adequate fuel and machinery for planting and harvesting. Traditionally, winter grain is grown in the southern regions of the country and does not play a significant role in the total grain production. About 650,000 hectares of winter grains were planted for MY2007/08. No significant winterkill was officially reported in Kazakhstan this year. MY2007/08 grain exports are expected to be 2 MMT less than last year due to anticipated lower production and previous year’s ending stocks. Kazakhstan’s MY 2006/2007 total grain production was officially reported as 16.5 MMT, including 13.4 MMT of wheat, reaching record levels for the first time in 15 years. Despite the strong summer drought in the western regions, which destroyed about 500,000 hectares of planted grains, higher than usual yields in the three Northern regions provided about 80 percent of the total record crop. Most of the grain was produced by the large grain companies in Akmola, North Kazakhstan and Kostanay regions. MY2006/07 grain exports are estimated at 7.4 MMT, including 5.4 MMT of wheat, 1.6 MMT wheat flour in grain equivalent, 300,000 MT of barley, and about 100,000 of other grains. Major importers remain CIS countries (56 percent of total), Turkey, Iran, Egypt and Italy.

PRODUCTION

Kazakhstan’s wheat production is forecast at 12.0 MMT in MY2007/08, assuming normal weather conditions during the remainder of the growing season. Wheat planted area is expected to drop slightly from 12.2 million hectares in 2006/07 to 12.1 million hectares in 2007/08 due to expanding areas for barley and oilseeds. Major wheat area reduction is expected in southern regions of the country, where areas for oilseeds, vegetables and fodder crops will be expanded. Total wheat areas include 11.5 million hectares of spring wheat and 600,000 hectares of winter wheat. No significant winter kill was officially reported in the current year. Winter snow and spring rainfalls provided adequate moisture content for the crop development in major grain producing regions. Timely rainfalls in the middle of July will be critical for the development of the crops. The Ministry of Agriculture reported that grain producers have procured better quality seeds for the current year’s planting. Also, fuel and machinery supplies are expected to be adequate for planting and harvesting. Usually, sowing began in the middle of May in major grain planting regions, but cool and wet weather could delay planting in the northern regions of the country. MY2006/07 total wheat production was officially reported as 13.5 MMT, 2.5 MMT more than in the previous year. Such record wheat production was possible because of higher yields in the three northern regions of the country, which produced about 80 percent of the total wheat. Cold and wet weather during the spring in northern Kazakhstan delayed wheat planting for two weeks and, as result, postponed harvesting, which also took place in wet and cold weather in late fall. The late harvest caused low content of gluten in the wheat;therefore, about 3.0 MMT of wheat have been classified as 4-5 class feed grain. Strong summer drought in the western part of the country destroyed about 500,000 hectares of wheat and resulted low yields on the remained areas of the regions. Large grain companies remain the major wheat producers in Kazakhstan. They produced about 70 percent of total wheat small farmers produced the remaining 30 percent. MY2006/07 total durum wheat production is estimated at 550,000 MMT.
MGR Archive 10.6.2007
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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