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Ministry of Economics of Ukraine proposes to introduce export quotas for grains
Ministry of Economics of Ukraine proposes to introduce quotas for export of wheat, barley, rye and maize till the end of 2006. This is covered in the draft regulations of Government "About introduction of alterations into regulations of the Cabinet of Ministers in Ukraine No 1304 d. d. December, 30, 2005", published at the official site of the Ministry of Agrarian Policy on October, 3.

The main aim of introduction of quotas is prevention of country food safety threat.

The draft regulation offers to set the following export quotas for November-December 2006:

- wheat and meslin (wheat and rye mixture) (UCCFEA 1001 10 00 90, 1001 90 99 00) - 400.000 tonnes;

- barley (UCCFEA 1003 00 90 00) - 600.000 tonnes;

- maize (UCCFEA Д 1005 10 90 00) - 100.000 tonnes;

- rye (UCCFEA 1002 00 00 00) - 0.000 tonnes.

As it is noted in the explanatory note to the draft regulations introduction of quotas for export of the indicated crops was caused by a variety of reasons. As a result of extremely difficult conditions of formation of the current year harvest (prolonged drought in Autumn period, unfavourable conditions of winter crops wintering and also significant rise in prices for oil products) acreage planted with grains reduced by 1.4 mln ha in Ukraine this year, in particular, before the beginning of harvesting campaign total area under wheat was 5.6 mln ha (down 1 mln ha from 2005).

In this connection according to the operative data from the regions expected gross grain output is forecasted at 34.7 mln tonnes in all categories of farms in Ukraine in 2006, including 14.3 mln tonnes of wheat, 11.8 mln tonnes of barley, 5.7 mln tonnes of maize, down 4.4 and 1.5 mln tonnes accordingly from the previous year.

At the same time owing to decrease in world wheat harvest and rise in world prices for it grain export from Ukraine activated.

According to the data from Union of agrarian exchanges of Ukraine, as of the 2nd of October, 2006, on exchange market were concluded the contracts for export of grains (harvest 2006) in the volume of 5.3 mln tonnes, including wheat - 2.8 mln tonnes. Volume of contracted milling wheat totals 1.9 mln tonnes, up 782.000 tonnes from the previous year. Besides, according to the State Customs Service volumes of barley export significantly increased (2.124 mln tonnes against 1.153 mln tonnes in 2005).

At that document authors notice that in the medium-term outlook the situation on the world grain market will be characterized by further excess of demand over supply and corresponding rise in prices that can lead to imbalance on grain domestic market, first of all, of milling wheat, and negative consequences.

According to the calculations of officials at the beginning of October availability of wheat grain totals 12.7 mln tonnes in Ukraine, including 8 mln tonnes of milling one. At that till the end of the current marketing year (July, 1, 2007) domestic needs will be covered by 7.2 mln tonnes of wheat (4.5 mln tonnes of milling). Expected carry-over stock of milling wheat will total 4 mln tonnes.

Maize crop is forecasted to be 5.3 mln tonnes. Domestic needs will be covered by 4.6 mln tonnes.

Thus, Ministry of Economics thinks that possibilities of additional export of grains till the 1st of July, 2007, should not exceed: wheat - 1.5 mln tonnes (600.000 tonnes of milling), barley - 3 mln tonnes and maize - 500.000 tonnes.

Based on foregoing the existing situation on the market of the indicated strategic raw materials needs immediate state interference.

Document authors stress that in accordance with the subparagraph a) of paragraph 2 of the article XI GATT is permitted temporary restriction or export with the purpose of prevention or ease of critical deficiency of foodstuffs or other products that are of great importance for exporting part.

Ministry of Economics doesn't give official comments.
MGR Archive 6.10.2006
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