Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
Australia Medium Grain Rice #1 $ N/A    Egypt 101 #2 $760    Egypt 178 #2 Rice $730    EU Prices Baldo €660    EU Prices LG-A Ariete 5% €550    EU Prices MG Lotto 5% €500    EU Prices RG Balilla 5% €500    Russia Rapan $ 700    USA Jupiter Paddy $375    USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480    USA Jupiter Rice $630    USA Calrose #1 $830   

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Wheat sales - a weak number to be bullish
Corn - Thursday's weekly export sales report came in as a real surprise showing only 340 t.m.t. of corn was sold last week a new marketing year low since the marketing year began Sept. 1, 2006. It was also 42% under the week prior and 68% below our four week average. Asian sales, which account for over 70% of our exportable coarse grain yearly, were only 140 t.m.t. Sales or exports have been up 10 to 16% consistently this year, so this could just be an aberration. We saw heavy selling of corn futures Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday as large trading funds sold the rumor that heavy Midwest rains would come by Thursday and Friday. Short covering began off Wednesday low with a higher open Thursday. It was classic commodities, sell the rumor, buy the fact. Friday is when traders juggle all the models of weather predictions to determine if they should be long or short on Monday's open as the 6 to 10 day outlook is released. As of the writing of this report has next week as uncertain. Some weather models have Monday's 6 to 10 day outlook with normal temps and rainfall and others see a heat dome entering by next Thursday. The uncertainty should have those not in the market on the sidelines until Monday. Here is what we do know: rains in the western and eastern Midwest grain belt were greater than expected the last 48 hours. If last Monday's crop condition report showed a quality increase in 5 key Midwest producers, then this Monday should as well. Option players can play both sides by buying Sept. 2.45 call for 5 cents or $250. and buy the 2.35 put for 6 cents or $300. You have 11 cents costs and risk, while the futures have that everyday. We are sure to cover the 11 cents in one direction or the other before expiration.

Wheat - Thursday's weekly export sales report showed 329 t.m.t. of wheat sold last week up 64% from a weak number the week prior and 3% under our four week average. We need 600 t.m.t. or more to be bullish. Last week's high prices are the culprit here as importers await lower cash bids as spring wheat harvest begins next month. A lot of traders will be talking about higher wheat prices yet to come as production is way down but I question this as harvest is almost complete on our winter crop and our spring wheat crop is all but done maturing with harvest beginning on early planted acres next week and deep into August leaving supply side concerns old news. The big question over the weekend will be how much spring wheat damage a occurred into Thursday in MN and ND where 2 to 5 inches of rain fell in areas lending to rumors of fragile wheat heads being destroyed. Those kind of tormential down pours over several hours can cause good damage. This had MN wheat futures up 10 to 14 cents at midsession Thursday with further opening strength Friday. Look for higher close Monday in anticipation of a bullish crop condition report after the close Monday. If the condition declines again then sell a higher open Tuesday.
MGR Archive 24.7.2006
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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