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CBOT - corn was sold last week 25% off
CORN: The week for corn started with Monday's weekly export inspection report showing 44.6 million bushels of corn was inspected by USDA officials for near term export. This was off 5 m.b. from the week prior but 13 m.b. over the last year. We are 181 m.b. up on the year.
Thursday's weekly export sales report showed 867 t.m.t. of corn was sold last week, off 25% from the week prior and 30% below our strong four week average. This is well over a year ago of 580 t.m.t. Sales to Asian markets were 480 t.m.t. versus 600 the week prior. We can pick at it all we want but sales continue good on the year even on a off week. Both demand side reports should be viewed as neutral for pricing on the week. Monday's crop condition report showed our corn crop at 71% in good to excellent condition up 1% from the week prior and over a year ago of 64%. this is a big rating and shows we are off to a great start thanks to ample spring rains. Only Indiana seems to be lagging at 52% G-E. this week's rains were marginal at best, so a unchanged to up 1% on g-E should be expected. Friday's USDA monthly crop report put our carry over stocks or ending inventory for the start of our harvest and new marketing year September 1st at 2.176 billion bushels down 50 m.b. from our last report in May and they put our 2007 ending stocks at 1.091 b.b. down 51 m.b. from the month prior and less than half of this year. it was all in line with pre-report trade guesses and led to a slightly higher open before selling off to down 3 cents at mid-session as traders quickly turned from the reports influence to weather's impact. it looks to be wet across most of the Midwest this weekend which should set up for a lower open Monday but WXRISK.COM say we could come in next week looking at a warmer, drier forecast for late next week into June 19th through the 22nd time frame. if we confirm this a lower open Monday should have shorts take profits and turn and buy long as we will be oversold with a weather bias to the long or buy side.

WHEAT: Monday's weekly export inspection report showed 18.7 m.b. of wheat was inspected for near term export up 2 m.b. from the week prior an 1 m.b. a year ago. Thursday's weekly export sales report showed 320 t.m.t. of wheat was sold last week, which was the beginning of the wheat new marketing year. This was off from the week prior by 92 t.m.t. we need 650 t.m.t. or more weekly to turn demand friendly. With only 9% of the winter crop harvested and prices too high importers await further harvest pressure and cash futures declines. Monday's crop condition report for our winter wheat crop showed 27% is in G-E condition down 1% from the week prior and 21% under a year ago. We are now 9% harvested and with harvest underway the market ignores the condition reports. With 9 year highs hit 2 weeks ago pricing in this year's production problems all that lies ahead is harvest pressure on lower cash bidding by elevators. our spring wheat condition report came in at 69% g-E condition down 4% from the week prior and 9% below last year. the heavy rains this week look to stop the recent slide in conditions giving us a unchanged to better rating on Monday's update. Note, the spring wheat crop is delivered on Minneapolis futures and our winter wheat now being harvest is delivered against Kansas City exchange futures and soft red wheat at the Chicago Board of Trade. Friday's USDA crop report showed our ending stocks of wheat come June 1st 2007 at 416 m.b. versus 547 this year due to recent production problems. They put all winter wheat varieties production at 1.264 b.b. versus 1.323 last month and 1.499 a year ago. This led to a higher open in KC of 15 cents before falling to down 5 cents at mid-session. Note, I gave on my Tuesday report to expect a bullish report but to sell short a higher open as they will quickly turn to pricing in the harvest as supply side damage is priced in. The northern spring wheat states should receive ample week end rains, good for crop development while we look hot and dry over our western plains winter wheat states lending to a quick harvest pace. Everything points lower for wheat but for those who did not sell Friday's opening highs, wait for bounce.
MGR Archive 12.6.2006
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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