Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
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China rice output for MY05/06 is estimated up 1.5 percent
Rice production is estimated at 182 mmt (unmilled) in MY05/06, up 1.5 percent over the previous year. Estimated area planted is 29 million Ha, up 2 percent over the previous year. Early-season rice production is reportedly down 1.3 percent to 31.79 mmt from the previous year, due to lower yields from flood and typhoon damage in the costal regions. Acreage is up 1 percent, however. Because of a slight increase in area and higher than average yields, late-season rice production is estimated at 150 mmt, up 2 percent from the previous year.

Rice output for MY06/07 is forecast at 184 mmt, up 1 percent from the previous year, despite a 6 percent drop in the retail price for rice. This is a result of the price floor, which has stabilized rice prices and made rice an attractive, stable, crop for risk-averse farmers. Rice acreage in MY06/07 is forecast at 29.2 million Ha, up slightly from the previous year.

Post revised MY05/06 consumption data down by 3 mmt from the previous estimate of 135 mmt (milled). The decline in market price indicates that stock levels are currently adequate. Rice consumption is forecast to increase slightly in MY06/07 to 132 mmt (milled).

As a relatively efficient rice producer, China will not be a significant rice importer. While China has signed quarantine protocols on rice imports with Thailand, Uruguay, Vietnam and Pakistan, most imports were indica varieties mainly from Thailand and Vietnam in CY2004 and 2005. Rice imports for MY05/06 are estimated at 700,000 metric tons. Rice imports for MY06/07 are forecast at 800,000 metric tons, 100,000 higher than the previous year.

Since 2004, the government has tightened controls on rice exports. From 2000 to 2003, China exported about 2 mmt yearly. At that time, most of China’s rice exports were low quality indica to African countries. As rice stock levels continue to fall, such rice will be less available. China also exports japonica varieties to Japan, Russia and South Korea, however. These exports are small in volume but highly profitable, and are forecast to continue. Rice exports in MY05/06 are estimated at 800,000 metric tons. Rice exports in MY06/07 are forecast unchanged at 800,000 metric tons.

In MY05/06, the estimate for consumption is higher than that for domestic production. Consequently, the estimated stock drawdown is 5 mmt from the previous year to 33 mmt (milled). In MY06/07, the forecast for consumption is higher than that of domestic production, making the forecast stock level 29.7 mmt, 3mmt lower than the previous year. Rice stocks are adequate in MY05/06 and MY06/07.
MGR Archive 10.3.2006
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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