Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
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Bangladesh rice production up 3%, imports climbing too
Assuming a normal monsoon this summer, MY 2006/07 (July-June) rice production is forecast at 28.2 million tons from 11.2 million hectares. Prevailing high domestic prices should support increased planting.

MY 2005/06 rice production is currently estimated at 27.4 million tons, up 7 percent from the flood-damaged 2004/05 production. High domestic rice prices led to increased planting and prompted farmers to shift from traditional low-yielding varieties to high yielding varieties (HYVs) and hybrids. The first crop, Aus (planted in March/April and harvested in June/July), is estimated at 1.7 million tons in 2005/06. The second crop, Aman (planted in July/August and harvested in November/December), is estimated at 12.2 million tons, compared to 10 million tons in 2004/05, due to favorable growing conditions. The third crop, Boro (planted in December/January and harvested in April/May), now at its vegetative stage, is benefiting from favorable weather conditions. However, a scarcity of fertilizers and the ongoing shortages of diesel and electricity required to operate tube wells are likely to adversely affect production, which is currently estimated at 13.5 million tons, as compared to 14.1 million tons in 2004/05.

MY 2006/07 rice consumption is forecast to increase to 28.8 million tons, due to the expected increase in domestic production and the increasing population. Consumption in MY 2005/06 is estimated at 27.9 million tons, up 3.7 percent from the MY 2004/05 level, due to wheat’s inadequate availability and high prices.

Rice prices remained firm in CY 2005, despite a good harvest and above-normal imports. The average price of coarse rice in December 2005 was Taka 17 ($0.26) per kilogram, which was about 7 percent higher than the average December 2004 price. According to trade sources, higher import costs due to the continued devaluation of the local currency “Taka” against the US dollar was a major factor behind the higher prices. The recent open market sales of rice by the government under the Public Food Distribution System (PFDS) only had a limited impact on stabilizing prices. Prices are likely to remain firm until the harvest of Boro rice crop in April/May.

rice imports are forecast at 800,000 tons, which should bemostly commercial imports from India.

Rice imports in MY 2005/06 are estimated at 750,000 tons, compared with 1.1 million tons in MY 2004/05, when the domestic crop was badly hit by floods. July through December 2005 imports are estimated at 240,000 tons, compared with 460,000 tons imported during the corresponding period of 2004. On a calendar year basis, rice imports in 2005 are estimated at 1.1 million tons, compared with 812,000 tons in 2004. In MY 2004/05, the Government imported about 72,000 tons of rice through international tenders. Although the government had planned to import 50,000 tons of rice this year, imports appear unlikely in the near term. Bangladesh’s rice imports have slowed, following the discontinuation of subsidized rice exports from India, the increasing cost of imported rice, and good domestic harvests.
MGR Archive 16.2.2006
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