Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
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Total Canada grain crop down, but wheat, oat crops up
Production of grains, oilseeds, pulses and special crops in Canada is forecast to decrease to 70 million tonnes in 2006 from 72 million in 2005, largely because of lower yields, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s Market Analysis Division in its Bi-Weekly Bulletin. Total Canadian exports are projected to increase, while carry-out stocks are expected to decline.

Area seeded for 2006 will be influenced by expected net returns, current prices, expected delivery opportunities, crop rotation requirements, potential disease and pest problems and on-farm stocks, AAFC said. But the agency noted its forecasts were not based on farm surveys; the first survey of farmers' 2006 seeding intentions will be released by Statistics Canada on April 25.

Instead, AAFC calculated expected net returns by province using projected 2006 input costs, trend yields and current prices to provide potential returns net of operating expenses for the major crops. These projections indicate that, of the major western Canadian crops, non-durum wheat and oats generally have the highest potential net returns.

Expected feed barley returns are not attractive, but much of this crop is grown for on-farm feeding, and malting barley returns are expected to be good, supporting barley area. Oat area is supported by good potential returns in Manitoba and Saskatchewan.

In eastern Canada, expectations of stronger maize prices resulting from the recently announced provisional anti-dumping and countervailing duties on imports of U.S. maize offset the impact of higher input costs, and maize area is expected to be relatively unchanged.

Canola and durum supplies have reached burdensome levels, with durum deliveries restricted by Canadian Wheat Board delivery contracts. These factors increase the incentive to reduce the area of these crops and increase the area of alternative crops such as non-durum wheat, oats and barley.

AAFC forecast non-durum wheat seeded area to increase by 12% in 2006, with production projected to rise by 6%, and total supply up by 4%, to 27.4 tonnes. Domestic feed use is projected to increase slightly, mainly based on increased feeding of soft red winter wheat in Ontario.

Exports are forecast to increase by almost 10%, assuming that the supply of good quality Canada Western Red Spring wheat increases. Carry-out stocks are projected to decline by more than 10%.

CWB pool returns for non-durum wheat are forecast by AAFC to decline because of lower world prices and the continued appreciation of the Canadian dollar. Returns for No.1 CWRS wheat with 11.5% protein are projected at C$170 per tonne in-store, Vancouver or St. Lawrence, 11% below 2005-06.

Durum area is projected to decline by 9%, as a result of extremely high carry-in stocks, lower pool returns and poor delivery opportunities in 2005-06. Production is forecast to fall by more than 20%, but this will be largely offset by higher carry-in stocks, and total supply is projected to decline by only 3%, remaining the second highest on record.

Exports are projected to decline slightly, based on lower world import demand and increased competition from other exporters. Carry-out stocks are forecast to remain unchanged at a record 3.5 million tonnes.

Durum pool returns are forecast to decline only slightly, with No.1 CWAD 11.5% at C$180 per tonne, C$2 lower than in 2005-06. The projected premium over No.1 CWRS 11.5% is C$10 per tonne versus a discount of C$8 per tonne in 2005-06.

Ontario winter wheat seeded area has increased by almost 30%, to 0.45 million hectares, because of relatively strong wheat prices and an early soybean harvest. Production is forecast to rise by 30%, to a near-record 2.0 million tonnes.

Feed use, particularly of SRW wheat, is expected to rise sharply based on large supplies and strong domestic feed prices in Ontario resulting from the maize duties.Exports are expected to be relatively unchanged at about 800,000 tonnes.

The area seeded to oats is forecast to increase by 15% from 2005-06, a result of higher prices and lower production costs relative to other crops. Production is projected to increase by 18% to 4.0 million tonnes.

Total supply is expected to increase by 11%, as higher production more than offsets lower carry-in stocks. While domestic food use is expected to remain steady, feed use is projected to increase.

Despite stronger competition from the E.U., Canadian exports, mainly to the U.S., are forecast to increase by 6% to 1.7 million tonnes, based on increased supplies of milling quality oats.
MGR Archive 29.1.2006
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