Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
Australia Medium Grain Rice #1 $ N/A    Egypt 101 #2 $760    Egypt 178 #2 Rice $730    EU Prices Baldo €660    EU Prices LG-A Ariete 5% €550    EU Prices MG Lotto 5% €500    EU Prices RG Balilla 5% €500    Russia Rapan $ 700    USA Jupiter Paddy $375    USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480    USA Jupiter Rice $630    USA Calrose #1 $830   

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Corn & wheat near term exports down
C o r n: Yesterday brought our first reports of the week beginning with our weekly export inspection report showing 29.9 million bushels of corn was inspected for near term export, down from 34.3 the week prior and 39 a year ago. Year to date inspections are 115 m.b. versus 144 a year ago. It is not a bullish demand indicator but not as bad as it looks as it came on the week of the USDA quarterly stocks report when importers tend to back away. View it as neutral to demand. Just a note, gulf port terminals have recovered from the hurricanes and are said to be at full capacity. Monday’s crop progress report put corn at 55% in good to excellent condition up 3% from the week prior and 18% under a year ago. Drought states Illinois and Missouri were left unchanged while Indiana improved 3%. Ninety per cent of the crop is fully mature with 26% harvested up 3% from last year and equal our five year average. There was nothing in this report to suggest a buy or sell, it just shows a normal harvest pace. Monday started out lower in continuation of the big trend after late last week’s month end short covering but a higher close came when beans rallied pulling corn along for the ride, but Tuesday saw three cent losses by mid-session after the first private crop forecaster came out Monday evening with a corn estimate of 10.980 b.b. up 341 m.b. from the USDA September crop number. Even though this same forecaster was way off on its estimates before the September report, the market trades fear before fact. There will be at least two more of these private forecasts before Friday, then early next week a poll of the 20 top brokerage houses will come out with their estimates on a poll. It will be interesting to see if others follow with similar large increases. As I said on Friday unless funds and large speculators give up on their short side positions we have a better chance than not of testing 1.98 to 2.00 ahead of our October 12th USDA crop production report. This will be our last bearish supply side report of the year before we move into a demand driven market. If the report comes in 300 m.b. or more higher we certainly would trade under 1.98 with chart potential of 1.85 basis December futures. Eventually the gap to 2.16 will be filled if the USDA only nudges the production number by 100 m.b. or less. This will all come to play. The big trend remains negative but a report harvest low should be looked at as a long term buying opportunity on May corn as talk of increased corn use age for livestock, ethanol production and much lower corn acres to go to seed in the spring as a result of record corn fertilizer costs.

W h e a t: Monday’s first report was our weekly export inspection report showing 15.6 m.b. were inspected for near term export, down from 28 the week prior and 31 a year ago. Year to date inspections are 325 m.b. versus 397 a year ago. Wheat’s marketing year began June 1st. The sharply lower numbers come on tow fronts. One, recent strength in prices have put U.S. wheat over valued on the world market and two, we had importers sidelined last week ahead of Friday quarterly stocks and wheat production numbers. Demand still remains a negative fundamental. Monday’s crop progress report put our winter wheat crop at 54% planted equal our five year average with 25% emerged from the ground. Weather the next 7 days in key western plains wheat states looks good for both planting progress and good early emergence. Wheat’s fate remains technical. At these levels you need to be short December wheat with stops over the 3.55 resistance.
MGR Archive 5.10.2005
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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