Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
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USDA Estimates For Corn & Wheat
The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service issued its first estimate of the 2005 corn and soybean crops at the end of last week. Corn yield estimate dropped to 139.2 bushels per acre, down dramatically from last year’s 160.4 bu. per acre national average yield. Lower corn yields are projected for nearly all states that produce corn. Harvested acres remained unchanged at 74.4 million acres, which gives an estimated total corn crop of 10.35 billion bushels. Usage, boosted by demand from ethanol plants, is expected to be about 10.6 billion bushels. This would put upward pressure on price except for the 2.1 billion bushel carryover from last year. Carryover of corn at the end of this crop year will be in the 1.9 billion bushel range.

The USDA numbers for corn were about what were expected, although it is surprising that estimated harvested acres did not decline from long term trend. Reports from farmers indicate that some fields will go into the silo rather than be harvested for grain. Initial reports from early harvested corn indicate extremely spotty yields. The yields in some fields may be too low to cover the cost of harvesting. If harvested acres drop by a million acres and average yield decreases to 137.5 bushels per acre, the size of the crop shrinks to 10 billion bushels.

This year, ten billion bushels is sort of a psychological hurdle for the corn crop. If we produce 10 billion bushels or more, price won’t move much. But if the crop drops below 10 billion bushels, we will draw down the carryover enough to push price up.

The following is a corn price sensitivity analysis:
Production Likely Price Range
10.3 bil. bu. $1.95 - $2.05
10.0 bil. bu. $2.10 - $2.20
9.8 bil. bu. $2.30 - $2.50

The U.S. wheat crop is now estimated by the USDA to be 2.17 billion bushels. This is down slightly from the pre-harvest estimate of 2.2 billion bushels. At that level of production, carryover will be ample without being burdensome. Attention now is turning to marketing the crop, and that means watching exports closely. On average the U.S. exports about 46%, or about one billion bushels, of the wheat produced each year.

World wheat production will be down. Droughts in North Africa, the European Union, and Argentina reduced yields. Canada’s production is also expected to fall slightly. This means the U.S. should be able to increase exports of wheat this year. Usage will be up somewhat, boosted by good global economic growth, subject, of course, to the consumer spending dampening effect of high fuel prices during the crop marketing year. World carryover of wheat is expected to fall this year. Depending upon the level of export activity, these factors should strengthen U.S. domestic wheat price going into the winter and spring.
MGR Archive 21.8.2005
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Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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