Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
Australia Medium Grain Rice #1 $ N/A    Egypt 101 #2 $760    Egypt 178 #2 Rice $730    EU Prices Baldo €660    EU Prices LG-A Ariete 5% €550    EU Prices MG Lotto 5% €500    EU Prices RG Balilla 5% €500    Russia Rapan $ 700    USA Jupiter Paddy $375    USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480    USA Jupiter Rice $630    USA Calrose #1 $830   

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Record rice crop
USDA
2005-06 global production is projected at a record 410 million tons on 378.5 million acres, the second largest harvested acreage on record. China, India, Indonesia, and Bangladesh are projected to harvest larger crops. China will harvest an estimated 127.5 million metric tons, India 90 million tons, Indonesia 34.9 million tons, and Bangladesh 26.5 million tons. For the same period the United States will harvest an estimated 7 million tons.

With revisions to acreage and yield, USDA in July estimated long grain rice production at 169.5 million hundredweight, 2.5 million hundredweight below the June 2005 estimate but the largest production on record. This growing season has been extremely problematic due to weather extremes, so the possibility exists that production could slip below last year’s 168.9 million hundredweight.

USDA lowered its 2005-06 beginning long grain stocks estimate to 22.3 million hundredweight, 2.7 million hundredweight below the June estimate but 12 million hundredweight above the previous marketing period and the second largest beginning stocks since 1987.

Adding record 2005-06 long grain rice imports (mostly aromatic and fragrant rice) at 11.25 million hundredweight, the total 2005-06 supply would be a record 203 million hundredweight. Total U.S. long grain supply for the previous five marketing periods averaged 180 million hundredweight. U.S. long grain imports originate mostly in Thailand, India, and Pakistan.

Close attention should be given to 2005-06 total long grain use, which is projected by USDA at a record 184 million hundredweight, 16.3 million hundredweight above 2004-05. Total long grain use for the previous five marketing periods has averaged 163 million hundredweight.

Exports account for 11.5 million hundredweight of the 16.3 million hundredweight in new use over 2004-05. 2005-06 long grain exports are projected to be 93 million hundredweight, the second largest on record behind 2002-03, when long grain exports were a record 99.5 million hundredweight. Latin American and Middle East long grain demand will be key to determining total long grain exports as well as July and August 2005 rice forfeitures.

Ending long grain rice stocks are projected at 19 million hundredweight, the fourth largest since 1987 and significantly below 26.8 million hundredweight in 2001. With projections of above average 2005-06 ending stocks, long grain rice prices will have limited potential for strength without new demand.

2005-06 global production is projected at a record 410 million tons on 378.5 million acres, the second largest harvested acreage on record. China, India, Indonesia, and Bangladesh are projected to harvest larger crops. China will harvest an estimated 127.5 million metric tons, India 90 million tons, Indonesia 34.9 million tons, and Bangladesh 26.5 million tons. For the same period the United States will harvest an estimated 7 million tons.

Even with increased global rice production of 410 million milled metric tons, global rice consumption (417.6 million tons) exceeds production and global rice ending stocks are the lowest they have been since 1983-84.

That said, export prices weaken as global supply continues to be adequate for the demand. Mostly normal global weather, a food security conscious world, and food inflation fears are three of a number of reasons for limited global trade and price softness.

USDA data shows Thailand’s high-quality 100 percent Grade B (free-on-board vessel, Bangkok) milled rice for export quoted at $282 per ton. The price weakness is primarily due to Vietnamese competition and weakening of the baht.

Even with strong sales Vietnam’s export prices have declined, which USDA attributes to plentiful supplies due to the harvest of its summer-autumn crop. Price quotes for Vietnam’s 5-percent brokens (free-on-board vessel, Ho Chi Minh City) were reported at $230 per ton.

For the same time period as the Thai and Vietnamese quotes, U.S. southern long grain (No. 2, 4-percent brokens, bagged, free-on-board vessel price at U.S. Gulf port) was quoted at $302 per ton.
MGR Archive 4.8.2005
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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