Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
Australia Medium Grain Rice #1 $ N/A    Egypt 101 #2 $760    Egypt 178 #2 Rice $730    EU Prices Baldo €660    EU Prices LG-A Ariete 5% €550    EU Prices MG Lotto 5% €500    EU Prices RG Balilla 5% €500    Russia Rapan $ 700    USA Jupiter Paddy $375    USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480    USA Jupiter Rice $630    USA Calrose #1 $830   

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Seasonal-Average Price Range and Supplies to Increase, Ending Stocks to Decline
WASDE
U.S. rice production in 2005/06 is projected at 225 million cwt, 5.8 million cwt below the 2004/05 record, according to today’s World Agriculture Supply and Demand Crop Estimates (WASDE) report. The planted area is estimated at 3.36 million acres, up 11,000 acres, while harvested area is projected at 3.33 million acres, up 8,000 acres. Rice yield is projected at 6,751 pounds per acre, down 191 pounds per acre or nearly 3 percent from the 2004/05 record. The lower yield is based on trend yields for 1990 through 2004. Additionally, the lower yield reflects that a smaller share of the 2005/06 crop will be comprised of higher-yielding, medium-grain rice produced in California. Total supplies are projected at a record 278.9 million cwt, 4 percent above 2004/05.
Domestic and residual use for 2005/06 is projected at a record 126.2 million cwt, 3 million cwt above 2004/05. Exports are projected at 120 million cwt, 14 million cwt above the revised 2004/05 projections, and the second largest export level on record. Ending stocks of 32.7 million cwt would be 6.7 million cwt below the revised 2004/05 level, including long-grain ending stocks of 23.5 million cwt and combined medium- and short-grain stocks of 8.1 million cwt. U.S. rice prices are expected to continue to be supported by tight global supplies and firmness in international prices. The projected seasonal-average price range for 2005/06 is $7.20 to $7.50 per cwt compared to a revised $7.20 to $7.40 per cwt for 2004/05.
Global 2005/06 rice production is projected at a record 410.3 million tons, about 8 million more than in 2004/05. World consumption is projected at a record 416.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons. Global exports are expected to be down slightly from 2004/05, and down 2.6 million tons from 2003/04.
Ending stocks are expected to decline for the sixth consecutive year, to 68.5 million tons, 6.3 million below 2004/05, and the lowest since 1982/83. The global stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 16.5 percent, down from 18.1 percent in 2004/05, and the lowest since 1976/77. WASDE-422-12 U.S. Rice Supply and Use 1/ (Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice)
===============================================================================
: : : 2005/06 Projections
Item : 2003/04 : 2004/05 :==============================
: : Est. : May
===============================================================================
TOTAL :
Area : Million acres
Planted : 3.02 3.35 3.36 *
Harvested : 3.00 3.32 3.33 *
Yield per harvested : Pounds
acre : 6,670 6,942 6,751 *
:
: Million hundredweight
:
Beginning stocks 2/ : 26.8 23.7 39.4
Production : 199.9 230.8 225.0
Imports : 15.6 14.0 14.5
Supply, total : 242.2 268.5 278.9
Domestic & residual 3/ : 114.9 123.1 126.2
Exports, total 4/ : 103.7 106.0 120.0
Rough : 34.4 30.0 33.0
Milled (rough equiv.) : 69.3 76.0 87.0
Use, total : 218.6 229.1 246.2
Ending stocks : 23.7 39.4 32.7
Avg. milling yield (%) 5/ : 70.8 70.5 70.0
Avg. farm price ($/cwt) 6/ : 8.08 7.20- 7.40 7.20- 7.50

LONG GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 2.31 2.57
Yield (pounds/acre) : 6,451 6,569
Beginning stocks : 15.7 10.3 24.0
Production : 149.0 168.9 172.0
Supply, total 7/ : 174.5 190.2 207.5
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 83.4 86.2 91.0
Exports 8/ : 80.7 80.0 93.0
Use, total : 164.2 166.2 184.0
Ending stocks : 10.3 24.0 23.5


MEDIUM & SHORT GRAIN :
Harvested acres (mil.) : 0.69 0.75
Yield (pounds/acre) : 7,407 8,212
Beginning stocks : 9.3 12.4 14.3
Production : 50.9 61.9 53.0
Supply, total 7/ : 66.8 77.3 70.3
Domestic & Residual 3/ : 31.4 37.0 35.2
Exports 8/ : 23.0 26.0 27.0
Use, total : 54.4 63.0 62.2
Ending stocks : 12.4 14.3 8.1
===============================================================================
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding. 1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. 2/ Includes the following quantities of broken kernel rice (type undetermined) not included in estimates of beginning stocks by type (in mil. cwt): 2003/04-1.8; 2004/05-1.0; 2005/06-1.0. 3/ Residual includes unreported use, processing losses, and estimating errors. Use by type may not add to total rice use because of the difference in brokens between beginning and ending stocks. 4/ Includes rough rice and milled rice exports. Milled rice exports are converted to an equivalent rough basis. 5/ Expressed as a percent, i.e., the total quantity of whole kernel and broken rice produced divided by the quantity of rough rice milled. 6/ Marketing-year weighted average price received by farmers. 7/ Includes imports. 8/ Exports by type of rice are estimated. * Planted acres reported in March 31, 2005 “Prospective Plantings.” Harvested acres are estimated using average harvested-to-planted ratios by class of rice, 2000-2004. Projected yield derived from a linear trend fit over 1990-2004.
MGR Archive 13.5.2005
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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