Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
Australia Medium Grain Rice #1 $ N/A    Egypt 101 #2 $760    Egypt 178 #2 Rice $730    EU Prices Baldo €660    EU Prices LG-A Ariete 5% €550    EU Prices MG Lotto 5% €500    EU Prices RG Balilla 5% €500    Russia Rapan $ 700    USA Jupiter Paddy $375    USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480    USA Jupiter Rice $630    USA Calrose #1 $830   

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Dry week this week could put corn at 75% or better
CBOT
CORN: Corn started the week with Monday’s weekly export inspection report showing 36 m.b. were inspected for near term export up from 33 the week prior. Inspections are down 103 m.b. on the year. It is a neutral demand signal as 40 plus is needed to be friendly. Monday’s crop progress report put planting at 52% planted, up from our five year average of 45%. The dry week this week could put corn at 75% or better. Thursday’s weekly export sales report showed 623 t.t. of corn was sold last week up 26% from the week prior but under our four week average of 685. Sales on the year are down 13% so, we do not expect demand to be a driving force near term. Next Thursday’s USDA monthly crop report is expected to show another increase in our carryover. Stocks or ending inventory come Sept. 1st due to our soft demand. Com Monday we should have three quarters of our projected 81.413 million acres planted. This in effect means we move away from weather’s impact on planting progress as our driving force to weather’s impact on emerging crops as 90% of our pricing movement. First things first. If you are a serious trader you must have the best weather service news through August. I find the most accurate and timely site wxrisk.com . If you want to order their service call: 804-717-8256 and talk to Dave Tolleris. July corn has major support at 2.04 then 1.95 with resistance at 2.15. There is a number of weather services out there calling for rains over the midwest corn belt Sunday through Monday then again Thursday. With most of the crop now planted, if those two systems occur with ample rain totals. We could see July futures pull under 2.04 and as low as 1.95 near term as this would foster talk of record seeding leading to record crops. Of course if we come in Monday and Sunday’s rains fail and they now see late week rains as fizzling we will look for July futures to push up but not higher than our 2.15 resistance due to bearish psychology ahead of our Thursday 7:30 a.m. central time. USDA monthly crop report, expected to show an increase in our carryover or ending stocks come Sept. 1st. If you are long or considering buying a break early next week consider buying a June 2.05 put for 2.4 cents or 175 dollars. It gives you downside protection until May 20th.

WHEAT: Monday’s weekly export inspection report showed 22.6 m.b. were inspected for near term export up from 20.9 the week prior but under a year ago of 26 m.b. year todate inspections are off 90 m.b. It is a neutral number. Monday’s winter wheat crop condition report showed 63% of our crop was in good to excellent condition versus the three prior weeks of 68, 69 and 70% but well over a year ago of 48%. Our spring wheat is now 61% planted ahead of our 5 year average of 47%. We had more frost in the upper western plains early this week looking to give us another lower condition rating on Monday’s update. Thursday’s weekly export sales report showed 245 t.t. of wheat was sold last week down 42% from the week prior and 29% under our four week average. The demand fundamentals remain a non-pricing fundamental with weather and its impact on maturing winter wheat and spring wheat planting 90% of our pricing influence. Trading wheat futures is very tough now as we juggle two separate market events. One, May is when yields are made or lost on our winter wheat crop which comes to harvest in late May into June, and two our spring wheat crop nears planting completion in another 10 days leaving it in a weather market. Trade both sides of futures news influence. For the downside buy a June 3.10 put for 5 cents or 250 dollars. It expires in 2 weeks, and buy the July 3.20 call for 10 to 12 cents or around 550 dollars. The July expires the third week in June and takes you into our winter wheat harvest. Futures players find support on July at 3.10 with minor resistance at 3.17 then 3.26.
MGR Archive 8.5.2005
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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