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Argentina wheat production 3 percent down from the previous year
Post forecasts wheat production for next marketing year (MY) at 15.5 MMT on 6.25 million has.. This forecast is based on higher than normal yields (2.48 MT/ha) and increased area due to very good wheat/ second soybean results in the central Argentine production area.

Post has not changed its MY 2004/05 production estimate of 16 MMT on 6.1 million has. in line with official Argentine statistics from the Secretariat of Agriculture (SAGPyA). Yields were higher than the 5-year average throughout the country, averaging 2.6 MT/ha.

Wheat yields throughout the agriculture areas vary greatly, ranging from 1.5 MT/has., in marginal areas (Northern Santa Fe, Northern Cordoba, La Pampa), to over 4.0 MT/has. in the wheat belt (Southern Buenos Aires). Over half of total wheat production is found in the southern Buenos Aires province.

Surprisingly, during MY2004/05, wheat producers in Northern Buenos Aires, Southern Santa Fe, and Southern Cordoba (Venado Tuerto, Marcos Juarez, Junin, Pergamino, Bragado, Casilda, Cañada de Gomez) had yields of approximately 3.3 MT/has., well above national five and ten-year averages. In this area, in the face of falling soybean prices, producers can spread out their risk by planting wheat followed by second crop soy, rather than concentrating on only first crop soybeans. This trend is likely to continue next year, contributing to the increased wheat area and production.

Post forecasts that MY2005/06 domestic wheat consumption will be flat at 4.5 MMT. An increase in domestic consumption is not probable as demand for wheat products (bread, cookies, pastas) is relatively inelastic. As income changes, the Argentine consumer does not change his overall consumption of wheat products, although the composition of consumption may change; i.e. he may substitute pasta for bread or vice versa.

Post estimates that MY2004/05 domestic wheat consumption will remain at the level of MY2003/04 - 4.5 MMT.

According to SAGPyA statistics, 5.148 million tons of wheat was milled for flour and feed in MY 2003/04. Durum wheat accounted for close to three percent of total wheat milled. Wheat milled for feed (durum and common) in MY 2003/04 totaled approximately 3,253 MT, down slightly from 4,300 MT in MY 2002/03.

Of the total wheat milled in MY2003/04, 672,000 MT of flour, pasta, and pre-mix (wheat equivalent) was exported. Total domestic consumption for MY 2003/2004 is estimated at 4.5 million MT.

Post forecasts MY2005/06 wheat and wheat product exports at 11 MMT due to the price competitiveness of Argentine wheat. Argentina will continue to be an international player in the wheat trade due to the low prices, but not necessarily due to the quality of its wheat. While the quality of Argentine wheat in general is good, the lack of a well-developed classification system has led producers to concentrate on quantity instead of quality.

Post estimates MY2004/05 exports up from the previous year to 12 MMT. According to customs data collected by private sources, from December 1, 2004 through March 6, 2005, Argentine wheat and wheat product exports totaled approximately 6.2 MMT, compared to 2.6 MMT for the same period last year. See the year-to-date comparison below.


MY2003/04 wheat and wheat product exports are estimated at 9.56 MMT, as shown in the table below.
MGR Archive 29.3.2005
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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