Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
Australia Medium Grain Rice #1 $ N/A    Egypt 101 #2 $760    Egypt 178 #2 Rice $730    EU Prices Baldo €660    EU Prices LG-A Ariete 5% €550    EU Prices MG Lotto 5% €500    EU Prices RG Balilla 5% €500    Russia Rapan $ 700    USA Jupiter Paddy $375    USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480    USA Jupiter Rice $630    USA Calrose #1 $830   

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World wheat Update
Projected Planted Area for 2005 the Lowest Since 1972

U.S. winter wheat seeded area for 2005 was reported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in January to total 41.6 million acres, down 1.8 million acres from 2004 and the lowest since 2001. Heavy precipitation last fall along the lower Mississippi and the Ohio Rivers was responsible for most of the decline in winter wheat seedings. Despite prices that are expected to stay above the $2.75-per-bushel national average loan rate, spring wheat seedings are not expected to increase because of competition from other crops. In the Northern Plains, increases in other oilseed acreage, especially sunflower seed, and dry peas are expected to curb spring wheat area. Total planted area is projected to be 58.0 million acres, 1.7 million less than 2004, and the lowest since 1972. Wheat production is expected to fall 73 million bushels to 2,085 million bushels in 2005, driven by lower harvested area and yield.

World wheat prices during the fall of 2004 were not much changed compared with the previous year, but were high enough to encourage expanded plantings in some countries. However, normal weather is unlikely to replicate last year’s record foreign wheat yield, so global wheat production is expected to decline some in 2005/06. Increased beginning stocks will offset reduced production, maintaining large supplies. World wheat use is likely to grow mostly due to population increases supporting human consumption. Wheat feed and residual use in Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and the European Union-25 (EU-25) may be affected by reduced production. Moreover, in other countries wheat feeding is expected to be limited by competitive corn prices. Assuming trend yields, world production and use will be nearly balanced in 2005/06.

U.S. wheat production is estimated at 2,158 million bushels for 2004/05, down 187 million bushels from 2003/04 as both area and yield dropped. Planted area was the lowest since 1973. This lower production for 2004/05 more than offset the higher beginning stocks so that the U.S. wheat supply in 2004/05 is forecast to drop 129 million bushels from a year ago.

Total disappearance of U.S. wheat in 2004/05 is projected to drop 136 million bushels from a year ago to 2,217 million bushels. Both domestic use and exports are forecast down 26 and 109 million bushels, respectively. Exports are projected at 1,050 million bushels for 2004/05, down because of increased competition in world markets. Food use is projected at 890 million bushels, down 17 million from a year earlier. The decrease is due to declining per capita flour use, less wastage, and a high mill extraction rate. Feed and residual use is projected to drop slightly, 7 million bushels, to 200 million in 2004/05. Seed use is projected at 77 million bushels.

U.S. ending stocks in 2004/05 are projected to total 553 million bushels, 7 million more than last year and 62 million above 2 years ago. The season-average farm price in 2004/05 is forecast at $3.35-$3.45 per bushel. This price range brackets last year’s price of $3.40, but is below the season average price of $3.56 for 2002/03.

In 2004/05, foreign production (world minus United States) of wheat is up 76 million tons to 565 million, as production rebounded across most of Europe. World consumption is forecast up 19 million tons from the previous year, but is 16 million tons less than production, boosting forecast ending stocks to 147 million tons, the first increase in 5 years. World wheat trade is increasing due mostly to larger imports by China. Exports by the EU-25, Argentina, Russia, and Ukraine are increasing with expanded production. However, India’s export shipments have dropped as government policy shifted to more domestic distribution.
MGR Archive 27.3.2005
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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