Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
Australia Medium Grain Rice #1 $ N/A    Egypt 101 #2 $760    Egypt 178 #2 Rice $730    EU Prices Baldo €660    EU Prices LG-A Ariete 5% €550    EU Prices MG Lotto 5% €500    EU Prices RG Balilla 5% €500    Russia Rapan $ 700    USA Jupiter Paddy $375    USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480    USA Jupiter Rice $630    USA Calrose #1 $830   

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South Africa's 2004 corn crop up 13.3%
South Africa’s corn crop planted in 2004 and currently maturing is estimated at 11 million tons, 13.3% bigger than the crop planted in 2003. The area planted increased by only 4.3% to 3.343 million hectares implying that the average yield is expected to increase. A recent field trip through the summer rainfall grain areas confirmed the favorable conditions in spite of a late start to the rainfall season.

The good crop prospects are reflected in the producer prices as shown by SAFEX. The March 2005 white corn price dropped from R1, 071/ton on November 1, 2004 to R489/ton on March 1, 2005, or by 54.3%. The price drop is the cumulative effect of the favorable crop prospects and the big carry over which is expected to reach about 3 million tons by May 1, 2005. With total annual consumption about 8.8 million tons, the oversupply situation is clear. Exports have also been disappointing but the lower prices should stimulate sales. The price needs to drop below R400/ton to make overseas sales possible. The strong Rand is complicating matters.

The area planted to corn has been cut back by about a third since the market deregulation of the industry in the late nineties. The total area planted to corn (including developing areas) still exceeded 5 million hectares in 1986 compared to this year’s 3.3 million hectares. Most of the cutback in corn area was due to conversion back to grazing supported by the government during the late eighties. Alternate crops are planted on much smaller acreages than the corn crop.
Corn still takes up about 70% of the available land but only increased its area by 3% or 86,200 hectares this season. The other crops show major variations in the area planted with the result that the total area planted increased by 11.6% or 47,540 hectares.
As the surplus is mainly in white corn, current white corn prices are about 23.5% lower than yellow corn prices. The March white corn price is still R489/ton but this will have to drop to about R395/ton (export parity) before overseas exports become viable.

The most notable feature of the PS&D is the increased carry over stocks. This grew from about 2 million tons at the end of April 2003 to 2.4 million tons in 2004 and an expected 3 million tons in 2005. If current trends continue, the carry over could reach 4.5 million tons in 2006 if no alternative markets can be found. For clarity, we only count old season stocks at the end of the marketing year.
MGR Archive 6.3.2005
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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