Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
Australia Medium Grain Rice #1 $ N/A    Egypt 101 #2 $760    Egypt 178 #2 Rice $730    EU Prices Baldo €660    EU Prices LG-A Ariete 5% €550    EU Prices MG Lotto 5% €500    EU Prices RG Balilla 5% €500    Russia Rapan $ 700    USA Jupiter Paddy $375    USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480    USA Jupiter Rice $630    USA Calrose #1 $830   

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Global rice trade for calendar year 2005 is projected at 25.4 million tons
Global rice trade for calendar year 2005 is projected at 25.4 million tons (milled basis), up 500,000 tons from last month's forecast but down 4 percent from a year earlier. This is the third consecutive year of declining global rice trade, and trade remains well below the 2002 record of 27.9 million tons. Weaker trade in 2004 and 2005 is primarily due to record and near-record supplies in several large rice importing countries—primarily Indonesia, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Brazil, and Nigeria.

There were four 2005 export revisions this month. First, Thailand's exports were raised 250,000 tons to 8.5 million based on stronger demand, mostly from the Philippines and China. Second, India’s exports were increased 250,000 tons to 3.25 million based on a larger 2004/05 crop. Third, Vietnam’s 2005 export forecast was raised 300,000 tons to 4.2 million, a result of both a larger crop and expected stronger demand.

Partially offsetting these upward revisions was a 300,000-ton reduction in China’s 2005 exports to 500,000 tons based on tight domestic grain supplies. The weaker export forecast for China supported larger shipments from other sources. There were five country-specific import revisions to the 2005 global rice trade forecast this month. First, the Philippines’ 2005 import forecast was raised 500,000 tons to 1.3 million tons, the second highest on record. The higher import forecast is based on government statements expressing concern over a possible El Nino this spring and summer and an expected delay in the harvest of its 2004/05 spring crop due to typhoons last fall. China’s 2005 imports were raised 300,000 tons to 900,000 based on expectations of tight grain supplies in 2004/05. Partially offsetting these increases were three reductions. First, Brazil’s 2005 import forecast was lowered 150,000 tons to 550,000 based on a larger crop. Second, Saudi Arabia’s imports were lowered 100,000 tons to 1 million due to extremely large supplies resulting from record imports in 2004. Finally, imports by the Dominican Republic were lowered 15,000 tons to 60,000 tons based on government statements indicating a return to a more normal level of imports.

For 2004, global rice trade is estimated at 26.3 million tons, up almost 450,000 tons from last month's forecast but nearly 5 percent below a year earlier. On the export side, Thailand’s 2004 export estimate was raised 137,000 tons to a record 10.137 based on year-end trade data. Uruguay’s exports were raised 104,000 tons to 804,000, also based on government trade data. Finally, China’s 2004 exports were raised 55,000 tons to 880,000 based on stronger-thanexpected shipments in December.

There were 15 revisions this month on the 2004 import side, mostly based on shipment data. Angola’s imports were raised 50,000 tons to 250,000 tons based on greater shipments from Thailand. Senegal’s imports were increased 50,000 tons to 850,000 based on larger shipments from Vietnam and Thailand. Sri Lanka’s 2004 imports were raised 50,000 tons to 150,000 based on food aid from India and Pakistan. Mozambique’s imports were boosted 50,000 tons to 300,000 based on stronger shipments from Thailand. Stronger shipments from Thailand raised South Africa’s 2004 imports 50,000 tons to a record 850,000. Smaller upward revisions were made this month for Benin, Yemen, China, Colombia, Ghana, Costa Rica, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Partially offsetting these upward revisions were three reductions. The Dominican Republic’s imports were lowered 25,000 tons to 100,000; U.S. imports cut 15,000 tons to 485,000; and Jamaica’s imports reduced 15,000 tons to 35,000.
MGR Archive 13.2.2005
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Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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