Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
Australia Medium Grain Rice #1 $ N/A    Egypt 101 #2 $760    Egypt 178 #2 Rice $730    EU Prices Baldo €660    EU Prices LG-A Ariete 5% €550    EU Prices MG Lotto 5% €500    EU Prices RG Balilla 5% €500    Russia Rapan $ 700    USA Jupiter Paddy $375    USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480    USA Jupiter Rice $630    USA Calrose #1 $830   

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Russian grain production increase for 16 percent
According to the latest official Rosstat data, Russia produced 78 mmt of grain in MY 2004, 16 percent more than last year. The reported bunker weight of the crop reached 84.2 mmt, meaning only 7.4 percent was lost. The total harvested area increased by 3.8 percent, while the average yield increase by 5.5 percent. However, this is not the result of new technologies or production practices, but rather the result of favorable weather. Production of wheat increased by 33 percent, while production of the other major grains (barley, rye, and oats) decreased by 8.4 percent. Production of rye, the second most important food crop, was at a record low – 2.7 mmt, a 31 percent decrease from last year. Corn was an exception in 2004. Production increased by 63 percent due both to higher yields and a larger sown area in the Southern Federal District, the only place in Russia where climatic conditions are good enough for commercial production.

The area sown to winter crops, according to the Ministry of Agriculture (MinAg), was 14.4 million hectares, almost 1.5 million hectares more than last year. However, it is still early and weather could make a significant difference. Even at this point some meteorologists caution that unusually warm weather in the European part of the country may result in a decrease in the winter survival of grain covered by ice.

The import estimate for MY 2004 is almost 500,000 metric tons higher than the previous year due to increased imports of food quality wheat from Kazakhstan and at least 200,000 metric tons of rye despite almost 100,000 metric tons less of corn. During the period July through October 2004, Russia imported 510,000 metric tons of wheat and flour (in grain equivalent), 115,000 metric tons of barley from Denmark, Kazakhstan and Sweden, and almost 50,000 metric tons of rye from Germany and Ukraine (SovEcon data).

Total exports in MY 2004 are estimated at 7.26 mmt, a 13 percent increase from last year, including 6 mmt of wheat and 1.2 mmt of barley.
Exports in the period July through December 2004 consisted mostly of wheat, 5.1 mmt in grain equivalent. Exports of barley in this period reached 510,000 metric tons, significantly less than in the same period last year. Trade normally slows down in December due to weather related problems at major shipping points and will be fairly light until the new crop is available.
Stocks in 2004 are estimated at 9.3 mmt, more than 3.3 mmt higher than last year. However, this estimate could decrease if wheat exports accelerate over the next few months.

The most important recent grain policy initiative was the liquidation of the State Grain Inspection Service and the upcoming transition of all quality control functions of this organization to other agencies (See GAIN RS4066). If the transitional period lasts longer than expected, traders predict a significant increase in the number of court preceding connected with disputes over quality assessments and a slow down in transparent grain trade.

Another important policy factor will be grain interventions, which were supposed to have been held in September or October 2004, but were not. The main reason for the delay is the stability of grain prices and a holdup in the adoption of the necessary GOR resolutions (See GAIN 5003). However, the Minister of Agriculture said recently that in 2005, about six million rubles will be available for interventions.
MGR Archive 6.2.2005
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Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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