Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
Australia Medium Grain Rice #1 $ N/A    Egypt 101 #2 $760    Egypt 178 #2 Rice $730    EU Prices Baldo €660    EU Prices LG-A Ariete 5% €550    EU Prices MG Lotto 5% €500    EU Prices RG Balilla 5% €500    Russia Rapan $ 700    USA Jupiter Paddy $375    USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480    USA Jupiter Rice $630    USA Calrose #1 $830   

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China rice exports will continue to drop
Overall rice acreage for MY05/06 is expected to continue to increase. Planted area for MY04/05 is estimated 9 percent higher than the previous year. Average retail prices for rice rose more than 40 percent in 2004, the most of any grain. As it can be double-cropped in most parts of southern China, planted area for rice can expand much more than other grains.
In addition to increased double-cropping in some provinces, ric e farmers also planted some previously abandoned land.
To encourage production, in 2004 the government set the floor price for early indica rice at RMB 1,400/ton (unmilled), and RMB 1,500/tons for japonica. State-owned grain companies will purchase rice at the floor price if the market price falls below the floor price.
However, throughout 2004 the market price has been higher than the floor price. State media report that the government will establish a support price for rice again in 2005. Industry sources estimate that the support price should be the same level as previous year.

Consumption in MY 05/06 is expected to increase slightly. Indica rice varieties are mainly consumed in southern China. Japonica rice varieties are mainly consume d in northern China. The per capita consumption of rice as a staple food is declining as incomes rise, but there is some increase in rice use in food processing. It is reported that 60 percent of the population consumes rice as its staple food.
In addition to food use, low quality early rice varieties or stale rice reserves are used to feed swine and poultry at both commercial farms and rural households. There is no reliable data on feed use of rice; post estimates at least 10 MMT.

For MY05/06 rice imports are forecast at 900,000 tons, the same as in MY04/05. This represents a big jump from previous levels which had averaged 300,000 tons/year. The increased rice imports will be indica varieties mainly from Vietnam through border trade. Over the years, as an efficient rice producer, China will not be a significant rice importer. In past years, most rice imports were Thai fragrant rice for affluent consumers in southern coastal provinces. Early in 2004, local media and trade sources reported that small quantities of Vietnamese rice have been continuously entering China through border trade or smuggling. Trade sources estimate that about 400,000 metric tons of Vietnamese rice entered China in the first half of 2004 through border trade; these imports were not recorded in official Chinese customs data (see CH 4008). China became a net rice importer in 2004, if the border trade is counted in its balance sheet. China will continue to be a net rice importer, by a very small margin, in MY04/05 and MY05/06.
China and Vietnam signed a quarantine protocol on rice imports in October 2004. Vietnamese rice now can enter China through official channels and should be counted in official trade statistics. Thailand and Uruguay have had protocols in place for some time.
Rice exports will continue to drop in MY04/05 and MY05/06. From 2000 to 2003, China exported about 2 MMT yearly. Most of China’s rice exports were low quality indica to African countries. As rice stock levels continue to fall, such rice will be less available. In addition to the low quality indica, China also exports japonica varieties to Japan, Russia and South Korea. These exports are small in volume but highly profitable, and therefore could increase.
MGR Archive 6.2.2005
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Russia Rapan $ 700
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USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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