Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
Australia Medium Grain Rice #1 $ N/A    Egypt 101 #2 $760    Egypt 178 #2 Rice $730    EU Prices Baldo €660    EU Prices LG-A Ariete 5% €550    EU Prices MG Lotto 5% €500    EU Prices RG Balilla 5% €500    Russia Rapan $ 700    USA Jupiter Paddy $375    USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480    USA Jupiter Rice $630    USA Calrose #1 $830   

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Crop Forecasts for 2004/05 Raised for the EU & United States; Lowered for Uruguay & Costa Rica
International Rice Market
Global rice production in 2004/05 is projected at 398.2 million tons (milled basis), virtually unchanged from last month’s forecast but more than 2 percent larger than a year earlier.
However, production still remains below the 1999/2000 record of 408.7 million tons. Global consumption is projected at 411.9 million tons, virtually unchanged from last month but slightly below the year-earlier record. Global ending stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 71.8 million tons, up 50,000 tons from last month’s forecast but 16 percent below a year earlier. Ending stocks projections were raised slightly for Burma while lowered for India and the United States.
Global ending stocks are the lowest since 1983/84. At 17.4 percent, the stocks-to-use ratio is the lowest since 1976/77.
Production forecasts for 2004/05 were raised this month for both the European Union (EU) and the United States. In the EU, the 2004/05 production was raised 70,000 tons to a record 1.83 million. Italy—the largest rice producer in the EU—accounts for most of the upward revision. Italy’s 2004/05 production forecast was raised 80,000 tons to 922,000, primarily due to a higher yield. This is the largest rice crop for Italy since the 1990/91 record crop of 972,000 tons. In contrast, production forecasts for both Spain—the second largest rice producer in the EU—and Greece were lowered slightly. The U.S. 2004/05 crop estimate was raised 101,000 tons to a record 7.30 million, a result of a higher yield. The crop is up 14 percent from a year earlier.

Nearly offsetting these increases were two reductions in Latin America. First, Uruguay’s 2004/05 production was lowered 98,000 tons to 749,000 based on smaller area and a lower yield. The country has experienced severe dryness that has reduced water supplies for irrigation and is expected to adversely affect yields. Uruguay will harvest its 2004/05 crop in April and May. Costa Rica’s crop was lowered 9,000 tons to 130,000 due to a weaker yield caused by pests. On an annual basis, a big increase in rice production in 2004/05 in China, plus larger crops in Egypt, Japan, South Korea, Pakistan, the Philippines, and the United States are projected to more than offset production declines in India, Burma, Brazil, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and Thailand. A 12-percent increase in China's 2004/05 crop to 126 million tons is largely due to policy changes last spring promoting increased grain production. In India, a delayed Southwest Monsoon is responsible for a nearly 5-percent drop in production in 2004/05 to 83 million tons. There were four minor production revisions for 2003/04. First, the EU production estimate was increased almost 2 percent to 1.72 million tons based on a higher yield. Italy accounts for most of the increase. Greece’s production was raised slightly as well. Second, the U.S. crop estimate was raised fractionally to 6.42 million tons based on a higher yield. Third, Costa Rica’s production estimate was lowered 8,000 tons to 122,000 based on a lower yield caused by pests. Finally, Uruguay’s production was lowered 3 million tons to 884,000 based on a weaker yield. For 2003/04, upward revisions were nearly offset by reductions, leaving global production at 389.2 million tons, nearly 3 percent larger than a year earlier.
MGR Archive 20.1.2005
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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