Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
Australia Medium Grain Rice #1 $ N/A    Egypt 101 #2 $760    Egypt 178 #2 Rice $730    EU Prices Baldo €660    EU Prices LG-A Ariete 5% €550    EU Prices MG Lotto 5% €500    EU Prices RG Balilla 5% €500    Russia Rapan $ 700    USA Jupiter Paddy $375    USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480    USA Jupiter Rice $630    USA Calrose #1 $830   

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Too much rice in U.S., not enough in world
USA Rice Outlook Conference
Unfortunately, U.S. prices aren’t reflecting the world shortfall at this time. And the current export pace needs to pick up if forecasts are to be met.

For the 2004-05 year, USDA expects smaller total global supplies, tight exportable supplies and near-record consumption. USDA also expects weaker global and Asian import demand, higher trading prices and a fourth consecutive year of declining global ending stocks.

Changes in China’s and India’s rice production are big reasons for the continuing decline in global ending stocks, projected to be the smallest since 1983-84, at around 75 million tons. That’s down significantly from 150 million tons four years ago.

“In India, monsoons hurt rice production and took rice stocks down,” Childs said. China’s reduction in production comes from government policies to discourage rice production implemented after stocks reached burdensome levels in 1999.

Global stocks should remain at current levels or slightly below for the long term, according to Childs. “The only way to reverse that would be for China to change its policies back to those of the mid-1990s, and there’s really no economic reason they would want to do that.”

Global rice imports are projected to drop 4 percent in 2005, with Indonesia, Nigeria, The Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Brazil and Bangladesh expected to import less rice than in 2003.
Reasons include no severe weather problem in a major importing country (except Bangladesh), an import ban by Indonesia and large supplies in most major importing countries.

“All of the Asian countries that import rice have record or near record supplies,” he said. “But with consumption growing every year and little ability to expand area and difficulty in boosting yields, we see trade picking up (to the region) in 2005-06.”

Thailand, India and Vietnam are among countries expected to export less rice in 2005 than in 2004, with Pakistan and the United States expected to export slightly more.
MGR Archive 5.1.2005
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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