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Increase of canadian wheat as a result of higher yields in western Canada
Canadian total wheat production is forecast to increase to 24.5 million metric tons (MMT) for 2004/2005, a 4 percent increase over 2003/2004 as a result of higher yields in western Canada. Ontario wheat production is forecast to be 1.6 MMT, as a result of lower seeded acreage, but strong yields. Despite the higher estimates for 2004/2005, both Canadian wheat production forecast and Ontario production forecast are slightly lower than what was forecast in the August Grain and Feed Update. In addition, despite the increase in overall production, the quality of the wheat crop is significantly lower. It is expected that between 25-30% of the crop will grade number one and number two. Approximately 40% will grade number three and the remainder will be graded number four or feed wheat. To date, the expected amount of wheat grading number one is only roughly 10%.
According to testing done by the Canadian Grain Commission, the protein levels in all grades of Canadian Western Red Spring Wheat (CWRS) have fallen in comparison to 2003. The average protein content of the 2004 CWRS wheat crop is 13.3%, a 6% decline from 2003 and approximately 3% lower than the ten-year average. Variation among the milling grades is minimal. The protein content of wheat produced in Saskatchewan declined the most of the three Prairie Provinces from 14.1% in 2003 to 12.9% in 2004. Alberta and Manitoba CWRS protein content declined from 14.2% in 2003 to 13.7% and 13.6% respectively in 2004. The high levels of moisture and low levels of heat during the summer resulted in the lower protein levels in wheat in western Canada.

Protein levels in the Ontario wheat crops dropped significantly below normal levels, with very few producers of hard red spring wheat meeting the requirements for the protein premiums. Soft red and soft white winter wheat proteins dropped a full point, with some values below 6%.

The projected feed supplies of all wheat in western Canada is forecast to be nearly 5.5 MMT, with domestic feed consumption typically around 3.5 MMT, the excess wheat will require a market. Domestic feed use of wheat is forecast to increase above 3.5 MMT in 2004/2005, with feed wheat finding its way into feed rations it is not traditionally found in, as well as moving into Ontario. Exports of feed wheat from Canada may be between 1 and 2 MMT for 2004/2005, out of the forecast export total of 16.0 MMT. The Canadian Wheat Board has begun efforts to find export markets for the excess feed wheat. Despite having a smaller wheat crop than last year, exports of wheat from Ontario could be between 600,000 and 650,000 metric tons, of which a majority will go to the United States. Fusarium has been a major issue in some of the winter wheat crops in Ontario, resulting in downgrading of the wheat. Some additional wheat may end up in U.S. markets as a result of not meeting the Canadian Grain Commission quality standards for domestic milling.

The trend for wheat production in Ontario is seen to be increasing, with soft red winter wheat becoming the predominant crop over soft white winter wheat. Spring wheat production is also beginning to pick up in the province. Despite this trend, spring wheat is not expected to become the major wheat crop in Ontario as it is in western Canada. Ending stocks for wheat are forecast to be slightly higher in 2004/2005 than in 2003/2004.

Canadian durum wheat production for 2004/2005 is forecast to increase to approximately 4.7 MMT, an 8% increase from 2003/2004, as a result of increased yields despite a decline in seeded acreage. Strong production in North Africa and the EU has weakened the demand for durum, therefore resulting in a forecast decline in exports in durum from Canada for 2004/2005.
Canadian durum exports are forecast to be approximately 3.4 MMT. Like the rest of the wheat in Canada, durum was impacted by the wet, cool summer, and approximately 10% of the durum crop is forecast to grade number one and roughly 30-35% will grade number one and two. Despite the poor year and low amount of the total crop grading number one, the quality of the durum crop is better than expected. There will be attempts to utilize the poorer quality durum in the feed market, but with a large amount of other feed wheat and feed barley, it will be difficult to significantly increase the feed consumption of durum in 2004/2005. Imports of durum for 2004/2005 will be slightly higher than 2003/2004, but the increase will not be significant, as there is enough higher quality durum within the Canadian crop to meet the domestic demand.

Overall protein levels for Canadian Western Amber Durum Wheat (CWAD) fell 9% in 2004/2005 compared to 2003/2004 protein levels. The protein level for 1 CWAD fell from 13.6% in 2003/2004 to 13.1% in 2004/2005. Despite the decline, the protein levels in 2004/2005 are in line with the 10-year average but are 7% lower than the 41-year mean protein value for CWAD. As with the rest of the wheat crop in western Canada, the protein levels for durum were impacted by the weather. The drought of the previous couple of years drove the protein levels higher, while the cool, wet weather of 2004/2005 prevented the high protein levels.

Higher beginning stocks combined with increased production and a slight drop exports will result in a 15% increase in durum wheat ending stocks.
MGR Archive 9.12.2004
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Russia Rapan $ 700
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