Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
Australia Medium Grain Rice #1 $ N/A    Egypt 101 #2 $760    Egypt 178 #2 Rice $730    EU Prices Baldo €660    EU Prices LG-A Ariete 5% €550    EU Prices MG Lotto 5% €500    EU Prices RG Balilla 5% €500    Russia Rapan $ 700    USA Jupiter Paddy $375    USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480    USA Jupiter Rice $630    USA Calrose #1 $830   

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Tighter World Rice Supplies push global trading prices higher in 2004/05
Global trading prices have increased 7 percent since the start of the 2004/05 market year in August and are the highest since March. In mid-November 2004, Thailand’s 100 percent Grade B (FOB vessel, Bangkok) was quoted at $262 per ton, up $12-$15 from a month earlier and $26 higher than prices quoted in June. The price increases this fall are due to tight exportable supplies in Asia and higher prices for Thailand’s intervention purchases of rough rice from its growers. Thailand began its intervention purchases of its 2004 main-crop on November 1, and purchases will continue through February when the main-crop harvest is over. Quotes for Vietnam’s rice have recently increased as well, a result of tight supplies and a full commitment to buyers of its 2004 export quota.

From late 2000 through 2003 Thailand’s export prices were the lowest since the early 1970s. Not until China made large purchases of non-fragrant rice in early 2004 did global prices begin to rise. Prices declined during the spring as China delayed delivery of the purchased rice and renegotiated some contracts to stipulate a lower price.
However, by mid-October 2004, trading prices began to rise on tighter global exportable supplies and announced higher prices for Thailand’s intervention purchases of rough rice.

World rice production is projected at 398.3 million tons (milled basis) in 2004/05, up 2 percent from a year earlier, but still 3 percent below the 1999/2000 record of 408.7 million tons. China accounts for the largest share of the 2004/05 global production expansion. Despite the larger production, global rice supplies are projected to decline 3 percent in 2004/05, the third consecutive year of smaller global rice supplies.

Global area harvested is projected at 149.7 million hectares, virtually unchanged from a year earlier, but 5.5 million hectares below the 1999/2000 record. Larger plantings in China are nearly offset by smaller plantings in South Asia and South America. At 3.96 tons per hectare, the average global rough rice yield is projected to be 2 percent above a year earlier and the highest on record. Despite this year’s projected record average field yield, yield growth since 1999/2000 has been negligible.

Among the major rice exporters, production is projected to be higher in 2004/05 in China, the United States, and Pakistan. In contrast, production is projected to decline in Thailand, Vietnam, and India. Among the top Asian rice importers--Indonesia, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Bangladesh--only the Philippines is projected to increase production in 2004/05, with a record rice crop forecast. For major non-Asian rice importers, record crops are projected in 2004/05 for Nigeria and Iran. Although Brazil’s 2004/05 production is projected to drop 9 percent from the year- earlier record, supplies are projected to be the highest on record.

World rice consumption is projected at 412.4 million tons in 2004/05, fractionally below the year-earlier record. India accounts for most of the decrease. In addition, rice consumption is projected to slightly decline in 2004/05 in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan--a long term trend in all three countries, a result of income-driven diet diversification. In contrast, record levels of consumption-- including the residual, or unreported losses in processing and handling--are projected for China, the Philippines, Bangladesh, Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil. Both Latin America (including Brazil) and Sub-Saharan Africa are projected to consume record amounts of rice in 2004/05 as well.

With consumption exceeding production in 2004/05 by 14.1 million tons, global ending stocks are projected to drop nearly 17 percent to 71.4 million tons. This is the fourth consecutive year of declining global ending stocks and the lowest ending stocks since 1983/84. The global stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 17.3 percent, down from 20.7 percent a year earlier and the smallest since 1976/77. China accounts for the largest share of this year’s expected reduction in global ending stocks. China’s ending stocks have declined each year since 1999/2000 and are projected to be the lowest in more than 20 years.
MGR Archive 1.12.2004
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Russia Rapan $ 700
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USA Calrose #1 $830
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EU Prices Baldo €660
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