Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
Australia Medium Grain Rice #1 $ N/A    Egypt 101 #2 $760    Egypt 178 #2 Rice $730    EU Prices Baldo €660    EU Prices LG-A Ariete 5% €550    EU Prices MG Lotto 5% €500    EU Prices RG Balilla 5% €500    Russia Rapan $ 700    USA Jupiter Paddy $375    USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480    USA Jupiter Rice $630    USA Calrose #1 $830   

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U.S. ending stocks largest since 1986/87
ERS, November 30, 2004
Total U.S. rice use in 2004/05 is projected at 224 million cwt, up 3 percent from a year earlier and the second highest on record. Domestic use (consumption plus the residual which includes unreported losses in handling, processing, and marketing and any statistical errors) accounts for the bulk of the increase. Total domestic and residual use is projected to increase more than 4 percent to 119 million cwt. Although still increasing, the rate of growth in domestic consumption of rice (food uses, beer, and pet food) has slowed since the mid-1990s. Since 2001/02, growth in consumption has averaged less than 2 percent a year, down from 5 percent in the 1980s and 4 percent in the 1990s.

U.S. rice exports in 2004/05 are projected at 105 million cwt (rough equivalent of both rough and milled rice exports), up 1 percent from a year earlier. Exports are second only to the record 124.6 million cwt shipped in 2002/03. Record U.S. supplies and a much smaller price difference over Asian competitors are behind projections for increased U.S. rice exports in 2004/05. By type of rice, U.S. rough rice exports are projected to decline while combined milled and brown rice exports are projected to increase. By class, a fractional decline in long grain exports is projected to be more than offset by stronger medium/short grain exports.

U.S. rough rice exports for 2004/05 are projected at 32 million cwt, down 7 percent from a year earlier and more than 25 percent below the 2002/03 record. Brazil accounts for most of the expected decline in U.S. rough rice exports in 2004/05. Combined milled and brown rice exports (on a rough basis) are projected at 73 million cwt in 2004/05, up more than 5 percent from a year earlier. A big boost in U.S. supplies, a much smaller price difference over Asian competitors, and a decline in exportable supplies in several major Asian rice exporting countries--as well as in Australia--are behind the projected increase in U.S. milled rice exports.

U.S. ending stocks of all rice for 2004/05 are projected at 41.8 million cwt, up 77 percent from a year earlier and the largest since 1986/87. A 3-percent increase in total use is projected to more than offset a 10-percent boost in total supplies. A carryover of this magnitude will keep U.S. rice prices under substantial downward pressure for the remainder of the 2004/05 market year. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 18.7 percent, up from 10.9 percent a year earlier and the highest since 1992/93.

Long grain accounts for the bulk of the build-up in U.S. ending stocks. Long grain ending stocks are projected to increase 127 percent to 23.4 million cwt, the largest since 2001/02. The long grain stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 14.3 percent, up from 6.3 percent a year earlier. For medium/short rice, ending stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 17.4 million cwt, up 41 percent from a year earlier and the largest since 1986/87. The resulting medium/short grain stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 26 percent, up from 23 percent a year earlier and the largest since 1992/93.
MGR Archive 1.12.2004
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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