Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
Australia Medium Grain Rice #1 $ N/A    Egypt 101 #2 $760    Egypt 178 #2 Rice $730    EU Prices Baldo €660    EU Prices LG-A Ariete 5% €550    EU Prices MG Lotto 5% €500    EU Prices RG Balilla 5% €500    Russia Rapan $ 700    USA Jupiter Paddy $375    USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480    USA Jupiter Rice $630    USA Calrose #1 $830   

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Corn & Wheat weekly re-view
CBOT, November 12, 2004
CORN: Monday's weekly export inspection report show 47 m.b. were inspected for near term export, up from 25 the week prior and four week average of 30 m.b. It is a friendly near term demand signal. Monday's crop progress report showed 76% of our crop is now harvested up from 65 the week prior and a year ago and 5 year average of 89%. States furthest behind are Wisconsin 51%, South Dakota 47, North Dakota 31 and Minnesota 59%. Growers are letting corn sit in the fields longer to allow drying and save on costs at elevators in town. Thursday's weekly export sales report out Friday due to the holiday showed 830 t.t. of corn was sold last week off 43% from the week prior and 38% under our four week average. Asian sales fell to 265 t.t. from 410 the week prior. Lower sales are common ahead of USDA crop reports as importers await the report number for marketing direction purposes. Friday's monthly USDA crop report came out as the trade expected, with just a marginal increase in production. Corn production was put at 11.741 b.b. up 101 m.b. from last month's report, 1.647 b.b. over a year ago and only 38 m.b. over our average pre-report trade guesses. Ending stocks for the start of our 2005 harvest next year was put at 1.819 b.b. up 128 m.b. over last month, 25 m.b. over our average pre-report trade guess but 869 m.b. over last season. Ok, that is the last bearish supply side report of the year. Any changes on our next report should be down to a teaspoon. We opened lower and found light short covering pulling us up. By all seasonal indications we should be looking at harvest lows being in. Unless fresh bearish news enters we will look for the heavy short position in the market to slowly exit. Futures players should be March corn with stops at 2.06. Option players can buy the March 2.10 call for $450. or 9 cents. Risk on the downside is to 1.96 basis March futures if we close under our 2.08 support. Add to long on a close over 2.17. WHEAT: Monday's weekly export inspection report showed 17.8 m.b. were inspected for near term export down from 25 the week prior and four week average of 21 m.b. considering the lower prices the week prior inspections should have been better. It suggests demand remains slow for this week. Monday's crop progress report showed 91% of our winter crop is now planted with 78% in good to excellent condition versus 49% a year ago. This crop is off to the best start in five years. Friday's weekly export sales report showed 657 t.t. of wheat was sold last week up 69% over the week prior and 52% over the four week average. Mexico and Egypt were key players. Double bottom chart low prices last week brought back our buyers. The monthly crop report Friday put our carryover stocks to be left over at the start of next year's June 1 harvest at 568 m.b., 22 m.b. over our average pre-report trade guess but about equal a month ago and over a year ago by 21 m.b. They lowered Australia's crop by 1 m.m.t. and Canada by 500 t.t. These changes were disappointing as we hoped for bigger cuts. Charts show a strong double bottom at 2.97 basis December and 3.08 for March. Option players can look at buying the March 3.20 call and sell a 3.50 for 7 cents or $350. Futures players can buy March futures on dips with stop close only of 3.06 or add a January 3.05 put at 6 cents or $300.
MGR Archive 15.11.2004
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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