Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
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Largest - Record World wheat production
ERS, October, 2004
World wheat production in 2004/05 is projected to reach 616 million tons, up 5 million this month and up 64 million tons compared with the previous year. The year-to-year increase in global production is the largest for the USDA data base going back to 1960. Previously, the largest increase was 62 million tons estimated for 1976/77. Wheat production has rebounded dramatically from last year’s drought across most of Europe, with production increasing from Russia to Spain.

The EU-25 led this month’s production increases, up 2.6 million tons to 133.3 million tons. Harvest reports boosted wheat production for France, Italy, Greece, Denmark, Austria, Poland, and Slovakia, but reduced for Spain. Projected 2004/05 production for Turkey increased 0.5 million tons to 17.7 million as better-thanexpected yields were reported. Wheat production prospects in Brazil increased 0.5 million tons to 5.5 million based on increased area and improved yield prospects.

Wheat production was also forecast somewhat higher for Paraguay, Morocco, Romania, and India, but was reduced for Zimbabwe.

Increase in world wheat supplies was less than the increase in production because of a 1.4-million-ton reduction in estimated beginning stocks.
Trade data showed larger-than-expected local marketing year exports in 2003/04 for the EU-25 (up 0.7 million tons), Argentina (up 0.5 million), and Australia (up 0.3 million); drawing down their stocks. World wheat use is projected to reach a record 605 million tons, up 4.7 million from last month. India’s consumption of wheat is up 2.1 million tons because of reduced production prospects for millet and sorghum.
These grains are used for human consumption in India, and with less available, consumers are expected to turn to wheat. Small increases in human consumption are also projected this month for Bangladesh, Morocco, Algeria, and Angola, mostly based on the pace of imports.

World wheat feed use is forecast at 109 million tons, up 1.8 million tons this month. In addition to the U.S. increase, the EU-25 and Canada are each up 0.5 million tons because of large supplies of low-quality wheat.
EU-25 production increased this month, and a larger-than-normal percent of the crop across the UK, Northern France, the low countries, Denmark, and Sweden is expected to have reduced quality because of heavy rains before and during harvest. The Canadian crop was hurt by delayed development and early frost, as well as excessive wetness delaying harvest. Since Canada’s harvest is not complete, it is not clear how much of the crop suffered severe quality damage, but it is above average. South Korea’s wheat feed use was increased 0.2 million tons to 1.5 million based on feed-wheat purchases from Canada.

World wheat ending stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 141.5 million tons, down 0.8 million this month. India’s wheat stocks are projected at 5.5 million tons, down 2 million this month, and a reduction from estimated beginning stocks. Stocks are also down slightly this month for the United States, Australia, and Argentina. However, stocks are up 1 million tons for Syria because of reduced export prospects given reduced world prices. Stocks in Turkey are projected up 0.5 million tons because of increased production. Stocks are also up for Morocco and Algeria.
MGR Archive 21.10.2004
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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