Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
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Corn & Wheat weekly exports
CBOT, October 18, 2004
We started the weeks reports with Mondays weekly export inspection report showing 22.3 m.b. were inspected for near term export down from 34.6 the week prior four week average of 35 and ay ear ago of 33 m.b. It’s a negative demand signal for the week. Offsetting this was a sale of 296 t.t. to Japan. This was announced by the U.S.D.A. ahead of the open. Our crop progress report came out Monday after the close showing 75% of our crop is in good to excellent condition up 1% on the week. 95% of the crop is mature. Only North Dakota is far behind at 57%. Harvest is at 44% complete versus last year at 51%. States furthest behind are Iowa 30% Michigan 19, Minnesota 14,Nebraska 31, North Dakota 4, and Wisconsin 13%. Iowa and Nebraska are states most expect to come in with great yields but our far northern states look for our lowest yield. On my last report on Friday I gave the reasons why harvest lows are in and to buy March futures and call options. Today Tuesday we settled on March at 2.17 up 2.4 cents. Fund short covering before months end could trigger buy stops on our near record speculative short position giving a move near 2.30 by months end. Our next report is Thursday when our weekly export sales report comes out. Those who took my advise to get long should buy Dec. 2.00 puts for protection at 2 to 3 cents or $100.

Mondays weekly export inspection report showed 19.8 m.b. were inspected for near term export down 1 m.b. on the week and under the four week average of 26.2 m.b. It’s a negative demand indicator on the week. After the close Monday our crop progress report showed 78% of our winter wheat crop was planted with 57% emerged from the ground. This years winter crop appears to be off to a great start in terms of weather. After some fund selling Monday traders came right back in buying Tuesday. As you know we got you long Dec. futures at 3.10 and bought the 3.10 calls we settled at 3.19.2 today. I maintain that wheat’s strength comes on seasonal and technicals but demand remains weak at best. This leaves this market vulnerable for a break. We have seen a 50% retracement of our break from our Sept. high to our Oct. low. To trade higher we need some fresh news. Use minor management and remember the old saying. If you don’t take your profit the market will. We look for support from Thursdays weekly export sales report. It needs to come out showing 750 t.t. or more wheat was sold last week to be bullish.
MGR Archive 20.10.2004
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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