Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
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Export Projections for 2005 Raised for Thailand;
ERS, October, 2004
Global rice trade for calendar year 2005 is projected at 25.1 million tons (milled basis), up 125,000 tons from last month's forecast but virtually unchanged from a year earlier. Global rice trade remains below the 2002 record of 27.9 million tons. The weaker trade level is primarily due to several years of stagnant-to-declining import demand from several top Asian buyers— primarily Indonesia, the Philippines, and Bangladesh.
There were three revisions to 2005 exports.
First, Thailand's exports were raised 250,000 tons to 8.75 million based on tight supplies in other Asian exporting countries, especially in China and India. Second, the U.S. export forecast was lowered 50,000 tons to 3.35 million based on weaker-than-expected demand from Western Hemisphere markets. Finally, Australia's export forecast was lowered 50,000 tons to 300,000 based on another year of tight supplies. On the import side, the 2005-import projection for Brazil was raised 200,000 tons to 700,000 based on smaller production. Offsetting this upward revision were two reductions.
First, Turkey's 2005- import forecast was lowered 50,000 tons to 250,000 based on a bumper crop and continued import restrictions. And second, Peru’s imports were lowered 30,000 tons to 70,000 based on a weaker-than-expected pace of shipments in 2004. For 2004, global rice trade is projected at 25.2 million tons, up 322,000 from last month's forecast but more than 8 percent below a year earlier. On the export side, Thailand’s 2004 exports were raised 250,000 tons to a record 9.25 million (the largest amount of rice exported by any country) based on shipment pace. Vietnam’s exports were raised 100,000 tons to 3.85 million based on a higher export goal set by the government and the removal of the ban on new export sales. In contrast, Australia’s export forecast was reduced 25,000 tons to 275,000 based on shipment pace.
There were four upward revisions in 2004-import forecasts this month. Brazil’s imports were raised 200,000 tons to 700,000; Saudi Arabia’s increased 100,000 to 1.3 million; the Philippines raised 100,000 tons to 1.1 million; and Malaysia’s increased 50,000 tons to 700,000. In contrast, Madagascar’s imports were lowered 100,000 tons to 100,000; Peru’s imports were cut 70,000 tons to 80,000; Mozambique’s lowered 50,000 tons to 150,000; and the Dominican Republic’s imports reduced 25,000 tons to 125,000 (still a record). There were additional revisions to several smaller importers in Sub-Saharan Africa. The 2004 revisions are based on delivery pace.
MGR Archive 18.10.2004
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