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Production Forecasts for 2004-05 Cut for Brazil, Raised for the United States & Turkey
ERS, October, 2004
Global rice production in 2004/05 is projected at 397.8 million tons (milled basis), virtually unchanged from last month but more than 2 percent larger than a year earlier. Both area and yield are projected to be higher in 2004/05. However, production still remains below the 1999/2000 record of 408.7 million tons. Global consumption is projected at 413.4 million tons, up slightly from last month and virtually unchanged from the year-earlier record.
Consumption forecasts were raised this month for both Brazil and India.

Global ending stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 68.4 million tons, down about 300,000 tons from last month’s forecast and almost 19 percent below a year earlier. Ending stocks forecasts were lowered this month for Brazil, India, and Thailand, while raised for the United States and Indonesia. Global ending stocks are the lowest since 1982/83. At 16.5 percent, the stocks-to-use ratio is the lowest since 1976/77.
Brazil, Turkey, Madagascar, and United States account for the bulk of 2004/05 production revisions this month. In addition, revisions were made for several minor rice producing countries, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa. Brazil’s 2004/05 production forecast was lowered 200,000 tons to 7.9 million based on a 200,000 hectare cut in area to 3.3 million hectares. The yield was raised slightly. Low rice prices, high input costs, and drought in Rio Grande de Sol are behind Brazil’s weaker area forecasts. Mexico’s 2004/05 crop forecast was lowered 6 percent to 183,000 tons based on a lack of rainfall in key growing States that reduced plantings. Smaller crop reductions were made this month for Angola, Guinea-Bissau, and Zambia.
Offsetting these reductions were several upward revisions. First, the 2004/05 U.S. crop forecast was raised 120,000 tons to 7.16 million, a result of a higher yield.
Second, Turkey’s crop forecast was raised 75,000 tons to a record 350,000 based on larger area. Finally, Sierra Leone’s 2004/05 crop projection was raised slightly to 248,000 tons based on a higher yield. On an annual basis, a big increase in rice production in 2004/05 in China, plus larger crops in Egypt, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand, the United States, and Vietnam are projected to more than offset production declines in India, Burma, Brazil, and Bangladesh. A 12-percent increase in China's 2004/05 crop to 126 million tons is largely due to recent policy changes promoting increased grain production. In India, a delayed Southwest Monsoon is responsible for a nearly 5-percent drop in production to 83 million tons.
The 2003/04 global production estimate was raised 1 million tons to 388.1 million, nearly 3 percent larger than a year earlier. India accounts for the largest share of this month’s upward revision. India’s crop was raised 600,000 tons to 87 million based on government data indicating a higher yield. There were two other significant upward revisions. First, Indonesia’s crop was raised 350,000 tons to 34.6 million tons based on a fractionally higher yield. And second, Brazil’s production was raised 108,000 tons to a record 8.71 million, also based on a higher yield. In addition, there were minor production revisions for several Sub-Saharan African countries.
MGR Archive 18.10.2004
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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