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U.S. 2004/05 Export Projection Lowered to 104 Million Cwt
ERS, October, 2004
Total use for 2004/05 is projected at 223 million cwt, 4.1 million cwt below last month’s forecast but more than 2 percent above a year earlier. Both exports and domestic and residual use were lowered this month. Exports are projected at 104 million cwt, down 3 million from last month’s forecast but virtually unchanged from the year earlier revised level. The export forecast was lowered this month based on commercial shipments through early October and expectations of weaker shipments to some Western Hemisphere markets.

Rough rice accounts for all of the downward revision in exports. Rough rice exports for 2004/05 are projected at 32 million cwt, down 3 million cwt—all long grain—from last month’s forecast and 7 percent below a year earlier. Expectations of much weaker shipments to Brazil account for most of the year-to-year decline in U.S. rough rice exports. Combined milled and brown rice exports (on a rough-rice basis) remain projected at 72 million cwt, up 4 percent from a year earlier. Expanded exports of milled and brown rice in 2004/05 are based on expectations that the United States will increase shipments to Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, two regions where the U.S. typically faces stiff competition with Asian exporters.
Total domestic and residual use is projected at 119 million cwt, down 1.1 million from last month but 4 percent larger than a year earlier. Food, industrial, and residual use is projected at 115 million cwt, down 1 million from last month’s forecast but still nearly 5 percent larger than the year earlier revised level. Seed use is projected at 4 million cwt, a drop of almost 2 percent from last month’s forecast and more than 4 percent below a year earlier.
Ending stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 40.7 million cwt, up 7.8 million cwt from last month’s forecast and nearly 72 percent larger than a year earlier. These are the highest ending stocks since 1986/87. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio of 18.2 percent is up from 14.5 percent last month and the highest since 1992/93.
According to the U.S. Export Sales report (Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA), for the week ending September 30, 2004, combined outstanding sales and commercial exports of U.S. rice totaled 850,300 tons (product-weight), 22 percent below a year earlier. Outstanding sales were reported at 492,100 tons, 14 percent below a year earlier. Exports were reported at 358,200 tons, 31 percent below a year earlier. Commercial shipments through September 30 were behind last year’s pace to the European Union (EU), Sub-Saharan Africa, Haiti, Honduras, and Mexico. In contrast, commercial shipments were ahead of last year’s pace to Nicaragua, South Korea, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan. The pace of U.S. sales and shipments has increased over the past 3 weeks, with the combined increase in net sales and shipments exceeding 100,000 tons per week since the week ending September 16.
MGR Archive 18.10.2004
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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