Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
Australia Medium Grain Rice #1 $ N/A    Egypt 101 #2 $760    Egypt 178 #2 Rice $730    EU Prices Baldo €660    EU Prices LG-A Ariete 5% €550    EU Prices MG Lotto 5% €500    EU Prices RG Balilla 5% €500    Russia Rapan $ 700    USA Jupiter Paddy $375    USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480    USA Jupiter Rice $630    USA Calrose #1 $830   

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Corn & wheat review
CBOT, October 2, 2004
Corn started the weeks reports with Mondays weekly export inspection report which tells us how much of each grain was inspected by the U.S.D.A. to be shipped near term and becomes a gauge of demand. Note, U.S. grain cannot be shipped out of the county unless its inspected and certified. So a commercial grain exported wouldn't ask the U.S.D.A. to inspect it unless they have prior arranged to sell it. Corn inspection were 41.9 up from 26.8 the week prior and four week average of 28. This is a good near term demand indicator. Thursdays weekly export sales report showed 905 t.t. of corn was sold last week off from 1.178 m.t. the week prior but over the four week average of 865 t.t. Asian sales were 401 t.t. thanks to a lower yen to U.S. dollar creating a favorable exchange rate. Mondays crop progress report showed 16% of our crop is now harvested primarily in our southern growing regions where yields are highest leaving our northern tier poor yields left to come by mid Oct. Last Friday I called for this week to give s a small short covering month end rally which we received then I called for a high before Thursday to be sold as traders re-enter short as the largest part of harvest pressure remained. We saw a sell off from Wed. high to a new low on our Dec. futures of 2.04. Now what. This weekend looks to see a potential frost or even freeze I our far northern tier state. If its wide spread enough we could see a sharp rally on Mondays open as corn inn some states like Minnesota and Wisconsin have less than 15% of the corn fully mature leaving I t vulnerable to yield loss. Failure o this weather threat to develop then expect sellers to push corn to new lows of 1.95 to 1.97.At this price range I will look to buy near the money March sell options and sell Jan. out of the money puts and sell March out of the money calls to pull in premium The reason I look to be a buyer off harvest lows is that once supply is that once supply is priced in demand fundamentals become our driving price. I look for demand driven rally on this premise. With 72%of our exportable feed grains go to Asia the yen dollar relationship remains favorable for exports into that region. Also a competitor of corn sales to Asian neighbors is China. China is expected to export about 4 m.m.t. of corn versus 8 last year. Chinese exports currently are down 80% on the marketing year. This leaves the U.S. to capture more exports to Asia this year over last. The wild card is the spread of bird flu in Thailand. A massive breakout could lead to a chicken slaughter in that region cutting feed demand. Its currently only a concern over some instances of the dangerous virus.

Wheat's first report came with Mondays weekly export inspection report showing 31 m.b. were inspected for near term export up from 23.8 the week prior and four week average of 23.8 the week prior and four week average of 26.2. It's a friendly demand indicator. Thursdays weekly export sales report showed 470 t.t. for wheat was sold as week up 14% from the week prior and 4% above the four week average. Demand is picking up but not good enough to move the market higher. We need weekly sales over 750 t.t. to bring on the bulls. Thursdays wheat crop report came in sli8ghtly bearish. The U.S.D.A. estimated all wheat production at 2.164 b.b. 59 m.b. over the average pre report trade guess. The surprise was the spring wheat production at 573 m.b. up 47 m.b. over the average guess. This had Dec. drop 13 cents after its release you should be holding Nov. 3.10 puts recommended before our report. Wheat looks to push to 2.85 to 2.90 on a mission to find demand . That's the function to ration the crop. Long term wheat could find demand with a Nov. and Dec. rally off a Oct. low after the Canadian crop is harvested and shows a significant drop in quality due to a far too wet and cold Aug. and Sept. Some reports see quality levels half of ay ear ago. Dec. wheat has first support at 7.90 with resistance at 3.20
MGR Archive 3.10.2004
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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