Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
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Record World Wheat Production Expected in 2004/05
USDA, September, 2004
World wheat production is projected to reach a record 610.6 million tons, up almost 2 million tons this month, and slightly higher than the level reached in 1997/98.

Wheat harvests across the Northern Hemisphere are mostly done or in progress, so more complete data are becoming available for several countries. Increased yields or improved yield prospects have been reported for several countries, while reductions this month were fewer.

Ukraine’s wheat production increased 1.5 million tons this month to 17.5 million. Above normal rainfall through most of the growing season and the harvest of a higher-than-average percentage of planted area are boosting production prospects.

Growing conditions were similarly favorable in nearby Romania, and 2004/05 production is expected to reach 6.4 million tons, up 1.2 million this month.

Wheat production prospects increased nearly 1 million tons in the EU-25, with sharply higher yields reported for Hungary and the Czech Republic, but reductions reported for the UK and Poland. Excessive rains and a very cool summer have diminished UK’s production prospects.

Production was reduced 2 million tons to 10 million for Kazakhstan because of extended dryness in the western part of the wheat-growing region.

Australia’s production prospects were reduced 0.5 million tons to 23.5 million because of long-term drought in northeastern growing regions and a lower production forecast by Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE) based on farmer surveys.

World wheat use is expected to reach 601 million tons in 2004/05, up 2 million tons this month.
Because of increased production, wheat use prospects are increasing in the EU-25 (up 0.95 million tons to 115 million) and several countries of the former Soviet Union (up 0.925 to 72 million), but were not reduced in some of the countries with lower production prospects, notably Kazakhstan and Australia. The EU-25 is expected to feed more wheat as rains during harvest across the northern countries, especially the UK, has increased the supply of feed-quality wheat. With the increase in projected use nearly matching the increase in world production, forecast global ending stocks are virtually unchanged this month at 142 million tons. However, there are several offsetting changes in different countries. Expected ending stocks in the former Soviet Union are down 0.55 million tons this month as the 1-million-ton drop in Kazakhstan and a 0.7- million-ton drop in Uzbekistan, are only partly offset by increases for Ukraine, Russia, and several other republics. Stocks are down in Uzbekistan because production is lower this month and 2003/04 trade data indicate significant exports to neighboring countries, reducing beginning stocks. Conversely, Russia’s 2004/05 ending stocks are up because 2003/04 trade data indicated smaller-than-expected exports. Romania’s projected ending stocks are up 0.9 million tons to 1.7 million tons because of the larger crop and Australia’s expected ending stocks are down 0.5 million tons to 5.9 million tons due to a smaller crop.
MGR Archive 19.9.2004
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Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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