Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
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US forecasts drop in wheat exports
Roral News
In what might be music to the ears of local grain growers, the US is forecasting a major drop in wheat exports this coming season, down 18 per cent.

Matt Kaye has details of the latest forecast from the US Department of Agriculture.

"USDA World Ag Outlook Board chairman Gerald Bange says the September forecast calls for a 9 per cent drop in US wheat production this marketing year, versus 2003/04; and the export production is even worse."

Gerald Bange: One of the reasons for that is, is that if you look at the rest of the world - specifically looking at foreign production, we're looking at foreign production this year - which is about 66 million tonnes above the 03/04 year.

"So we're seeing very strong production elsewhere in the world."

Meanwhile frost damage in Canada is said to be responsible for a rise in wheat prices on the Chicago Board of Trade, considered to be a barometer of the world market.

Prices are up 13 cents US to 333 cents a bushel for December delivery.

Grains market analyst Lloyd George says the market is responding to concerns that some of the Canadian wheat crop will be downgraded to feed grain, because of frost damage.

But he says like canola prices, which also soared after frost damage, it's too hard to predict what will happen.

"What does that mean at the moment? "It's hard to read too much into it [after] just one day. "I think that's the overall message, because the market has got a bunch of new information at its fingertips and it's really just digesting it."

And as we saw when the Canadian frost was first reported, the market can be somewhat erratic when those things are happening, the first reaction was up and then it fell down lower afterwards.

In Australia, growers remain uncertain about grain prices, which is reflected in the latest farmer confidence survey by Rabobank.

Beef and lamb producers are the nation's most optimistic, with the bank's quarterly survey recording the first jump in rural confidence in more than a year.

Twenty eight per cent of primary producers expect the economy to improve, a jump from 16 per cent in the last quarter.

Rabobank's head of rural banking, Neil Dobbin says despite improved seasonal conditions, farmers still have some concerns.

"The confidence is probably up in areas in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania; and I guess that's coming off a low base.

"You see other states like Western Australia and South Australia, where the confidence is a little bit lower; but they're coming off some very big returns from previous years, and they probably think the softening of grain prices are going to affect their income.

"Probably the state that's certainly down is Queensland, and a lot of that is to do with seasonal conditions."
MGR Archive 14.9.2004
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