Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
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Russian wheat export forecast to increase, prices are pushed down
Databank, August, 2004
Russia’s total grain crop is estimated at 75 mmt, with wheat making up over 57 percent of the total. The officially reported bunker weight may exceed 82 mmt, but due to rainy weather in the southern and central parts of the country, the gap between the bunker and final clean weight may be larger then seven mmt.

According to the latest (July 27) official data on harvesting (all production data is given in bunker weight), over 14.33 mmt of grain (84 percent more than on the same date last year) has been harvested from 4.2 million hectares. Wheat constituted 11.2 mmt or 78 percent of the total. Less rain at the end of July and the beginning of August permitted farmers in the southern part of the country to complete harvesting with rather good results by August 4th. According to data from the regions, Stavropol kray harvested over 5.5 mmt of grain and Rostov oblast harvested almost six mmt from 80 percent of the total planted area. The total crop in Krasnodar kray reached 6.2 mmt from 1.4 million hectares (92 percent of planted area), winter wheat production exceeded 4.42 mmt from a harvested area of 960,800 hectares (94 percent of the total planted area), with yields of 4.6 tons per hectare. Spring barley was harvested from 107,500 hectares (91 percent of the total planted area) and the average yield reached nearly 2.5 tons per hectare. The bunker weight in these three regions was almost 18 mmt. Crop prospects in other oblasts of the Southern Federal District, the Central Federal District, and in the Volga Valley Federal District, also look promising. Due to hot weather in the Urals, the crop in this region is expected to be lower than last year. The crop in Siberia is estimated to be average.

Despite decreasing world wheat and barley prices and strengthening competition due to good crops in Europe, Kazakhstan, and the Ukraine, Russia may export more than seven mmt in MY 2004. Some traders expect a shortage of boats this year in the Don River/Azov Sea region, an indicator of a very active export season.

Official data for exports in June or July is not yet available, but reports from various regions indicate traders were very active in purchasing the local crop and searching for export markets. A good crop in European Russia combined with a shortage of on-farm elevators and some farmers in desperate need of financing will initiate “gray” sales to middlemen and traders at prices as low as 1,500 R - 2,000 R ($52-$69) per metric ton. The “gray” market this year is forecast to be significant despite attempts by local administrations to reign in this market. For example, the Penza Oblast administration decided to create a special commission at the local level for “controlling harvesting” to combat those farmers who underreport yields. Lowering yields is one of the methods farmers use to hide some of their crop for “gray” sales.
MGR Archive 18.8.2004
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Russia Rapan $ 700
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USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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