Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
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U.S. and World Wheat Production Up, U.S. Price Down
ERS, August 16, 2004
Projected U.S. 2004/05 ending stocks of wheat are up 84 million bushels from last month due to an increase in production and reduced exports. Total wheat production is forecast at 2,123 million bushels, up 64 million bushels from last month but down 214 million bushels from last year. This August’s production forecast was much larger than industry expectations of 2,072 million bushels and exceeded historical August industry expectations by a wide margin. Based on August 1 conditions, the U.S. yield is forecast at 42.0 bushels per acre, up 1.4 bushels from last month. Projected exports are down 25 million bushels from last month while food use is up 5 million bushels. The projected 2004/05 price range is down 25 cents on each end to $2.95 to $3.55 per bushel.
A near-record 609 million-ton world wheat crop is expected in 2004/05, up nearly 11 million this month. Generally favorable growing conditions have prevailed around most of the world. The average global wheat yield is projected to reach a record 2.8 tons per hectare, up 2 percent this month. While world wheat production is up sharply this month, use is up much less, boosting projected ending stocks 10 million tons this month to 142 million. Competition for exports is expected to intensify as the year progresses, so the U.S. export forecast is down 0.7 million tons to 25.9 million for the June-May marketing year, and down 0.5 million tons to 25.5 million for the July-June trade year.

A near-record 609 million-ton world wheat crop is expected in 2004/05, up nearly 11 million this month. Generally favorable growing conditions have prevailed around most of the world.
The average global wheat yield is projected to reach a record 2.8 tons per hectare, up 2 percent this month. World wheat area is up slightly this month to nearly 219 million hectares, but remains much below the record 239 million reached in 1981/82. Wheat production is up for China, the United States, the new member states of the EU-25, Russia, Ukraine, Canada, Argentina, Kazakhstan, and others.
China’s summer grain crop (mostly winter wheat) was reported by the National Bureau of Statistics to be larger than earlier estimates by the Ministry of Agriculture. Spring wheat growing conditions have also been favorable. Average wheat yields are forecast to reach a record 4.2 tons per hectare, boosting production 3 million tons this month to 90 million. The declining trend in China’s wheat area is persisting in 2004/05.

Wheat production in the new member states of the EU-25 is up 1.3 million tons this month, with the largest increase for Poland, and smaller increases for the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Estonia. Harvest reports indicate strong yields, and weather was generally favorable.

Wheat production in Russia and Ukraine is up 1 million tons each, based on harvest progress reports that indicate very good winter wheat yields. While growing conditions for spring wheat in Russia and Kazakhstan have been variable, Kazakhstan wheat production was increased 0.5 million tons based on increased planted area.

Canada’s wheat production is forecast up 1 million tons this month to 24.5 million tons as moisture has generally been ample, and crop conditions are reportedly very good. However, colder-than-normal temperatures have delayed development, especially in parts of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, putting some of the crop at risk if there is early frost.

Argentina’s wheat production is forecast up 0.5 million tons this month to 14.5 million as favorable rains facilitated late seedings, and forecast area increased. Production forecasts for Bulgaria and Tunisia each increased 0.3 million tons this month based on larger-than-expected production reports.
MGR Archive 17.8.2004
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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