Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
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Corn & Wheat export report
CBOT, August 13, 2004
Corn started the week with Mondays export inspection report showing 36.2 m.b. were inspected for near term export up from 32.7 the week prior and 20.3 a year ago. Inspections are u 29% on the year. Its a friendly demand indicator but weather remains 95% of our pricing influence. Mondays crop condition report left corn unchanged on the week at 76%G-E condition and up from 65 a year ago. The crop will be fully mature in 12 days so were unlikely to kill it now. Thursdays weekly export sales report confirmed 318 t.t of corn was sold last week off 23% from the week prior but 458 t.t. was sold for new crop delivery after Sept. 1 leaving a combined total of 776 t.t. Not a bullish number but at least a friendly number and once weathers impact on corn yield ends in 12 days demand moves to the forefront of pricing influence. Thursdays U.S.D.A. crop report was no surprise putting corn production at 10.923 b.b. up 809 m.b. over a year ago and a new record. The yield was put at a record 148.9 b.p.a. Our ending stocks for the start of next years 2005 harvest were put at 1.132 b.b. versus 914 m.b. this year. Its still the fifth lowest ending stocks number since 1976 but the market traditionally feels comfortable with a savings account over one billion bushels. We have watched Dec. new crop corn futures move from a June high of 3.21 to 2.26 as moderate temperatures and timely rain had traders boost yield estimates as each week past avoiding the summer weather scares we have seen the two years prior. The remaining question is with the growing season coming to an end have we priced in all the bearish news leaving prices to bottom. The charts are what we turn to near term now to decide. If the trade is going to further price in bearish fundamentals we will close below 2.26 and push to 2.10 or its all priced in and shorts will cover and take us thru 2.33 resistance and push us to 2.56. Sell Dec. corn on a close below 2.26 and or buy Dec. corn on a close over 2.33 which ever comes first.

Mondays weekly export inspection report showed 26.8 m.b. were inspected for near term export up form 24.3 the week prior and 24.3 a year ago. Year todate inspections are e191 m.b. versus 173 a year ago. It's a slightly friendly demand indicator Mondays crop condition report put spring wheat at 67% G-E condition up 2% on the week and over a year ago of 56%. Were now 10% harvested effectively ending the growing season. Weather can only delay harvest but not kill the crop. Thursdays weekly export sales report showed 565 t.t. of w2heat was sold last week up 12% over the week prior 23% over the four week average but under a year ago of 721 t.t. Sales need to be better to turn the market as export competition is stiff. Thursdays U.S.D.A crop report raised world carry over another 10 m.t. over the July report. Major foreign producers see better production with the European Union at 129 m.m.t versus 106 last year. Canada 24 m.m.t versus 23 and China at 90 versus 86. The report put all U.S. wheat production 2.123 B.B. up 64 M.B. from our July report and carry over stocks for beginning of our June 2005 harvest at 578 m.b. versus 494 on the July report and 22 m.b. over last year. Dec. wheat finds support at 3.10 then 3.00 with resistance at 3.16 then 3.25. The only thing I see that could take wheat higher is a possible hard freeze in Canada's wheat fields late next week with a chance of frost threats in our northern U.S. spring wheat states. We will come Monday and look for that threat on our weather site. We remain in a downtrend until resistance is broken.
MGR Archive 14.8.2004
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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