Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
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US Export Projections for 2004/05 for
ERS, August 13, 2004
Total U.S. supplies of combined medium/short grain rice in 2004/05 are projected at 74.1 million cwt, up 3 percent from last month’s forecast and 13 percent larger than a year earlier. These are the largest supplies since 2000/01. This month, a larger crop forecast plus an increased carryin more than offset a reduced import forecast. On an annual basis, the much larger crop more than offsets a slightly smaller carryin and smaller imports.
At 9.1 million cwt, 2004/05 beginning stocks of medium/short grain rice are up a million cwt from last month’s forecast but 2 percent below a year earlier. The revised combined medium/short grain crop forecast of 60.8 million cwt is 21 percent larger than a year earlier. This year’s larger crop forecast is primarily due to a record California crop. Combined medium/short grain imports—projected at 4.25 million cwt—are down 500,000 cwt from last month’s forecast and 29 percent below the 2003/04 revised record.

Total use of medium/short rice is projected at 59.1 million cwt, down 2 million from last month’s forecast but 5 percent higher than a year earlier. Exports account for all of this month’s downward revision in medium/short grain use. Exports are projected at 24 million cwt, down 2 million from last month’s forecast but 9 percent larger than a year earlier. The reduction was based primarily on continued restrictions of imports by Turkey, a major market for U.S. medium/short grain rice. Expectations of stronger shipments to Northeast Asia are behind the year-to-year export expansion.
Total domestic and residual use of medium/short grain rice remains projected at 35.1 million cwt, 2 percent larger than a year earlier. Ending stocks of medium/short grain rice are projected at 15 million cwt, up almost 40 percent from last month and 65 percent larger than a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 25.4 percent, up 8-9 percentage points from both last month’s forecast and a year earlier. The combination of much larger supplies, expectations of a large carryover, and a high stocks-to-use ratio are expected to lower medium/short grain prices substantially from this year’s extremely high levels.
Total U.S. 2004/05 long grain supplies are projected at 185.1 million cwt, down 3 million cwt from last month’s forecast but 6 percent larger than a year earlier. A reduced crop forecast accounts for all of the downward revision in long grain supplies. On an annual basis, a larger crop and record imports more than offset smaller beginning stocks. Beginning stocks of 13.9 million cwt are unchanged from last month’s forecast but more than 11 percent below a year earlier. The 160.9-million-cwt long grain crop is 8 percent above a year earlier and the second largest on record. Long grain imports are projected at a record 10.25 million cwt, nearly 3 percent larger than a year earlier. Nearly all U.S. long grain imports are Asian aromatic rices— jasmine rice from Thailand plus basmati rice from India and Pakistan.
Total long grain use is projected at 168 million cwt, down 5 million from last month’s forecast but nearly 5 percent above a year earlier. Total long grain use is second only to the 2002/03 record. Exports account for all the downward revision in long grain total use. At 83 million cwt, long grain exports are down 5 million cwt from last month’s forecast but up 5 percent larger than a year earlier. Latin America, Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa, and the Middle East (mostly Saudi Arabia) are the top export markets for U.S. long grain rice. Total domestic use of long grain rice remains projected at 85 million cwt, 4 percent higher than a year earlier.
Ending stocks of long grain rice are projected at 15.2 million cwt, up 5 percent from last month’s forecast and 9 percent higher than a year earlier. The stocks-to-use ratio of 8.8 percent is up fractionally from last month’s forecast and a year earlier. Larger supplies and higher ending stocks are expected to put downward pressure on long grain prices throughout 2004/05.
There was only one supply-side revision to the 2003/04 U.S. balance sheet this month. The import forecast was raised 1 million cwt to a record 16 million based on revised Census data for 2003. Combined medium/short grain imports—forecast at a record 6 million—account for all of this month’s upward revision. China supplied most of the U.S. medium/short grain imports. The larger import forecast raised total ending stocks to 24.8 million cwt.
MGR Archive 14.8.2004
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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