Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
Australia Medium Grain Rice #1 $ N/A    Egypt 101 #2 $760    Egypt 178 #2 Rice $730    EU Prices Baldo €660    EU Prices LG-A Ariete 5% €550    EU Prices MG Lotto 5% €500    EU Prices RG Balilla 5% €500    Russia Rapan $ 700    USA Jupiter Paddy $375    USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480    USA Jupiter Rice $630    USA Calrose #1 $830   

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USA Rice Outlook
ERS, August 13, 2004
The first survey-based projection of the 2004/05 U.S. rice crop pegs rough production at a record 221.6 million hundredweight (cwt), down fractionally from last month’s forecast based on a weaker yield. At 6,680 pounds per acre, the yield is the highest on record. This month the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) fractionally lowered its 2004/05 total supply forecast to 261 million cwt, still the second highest on record. The fractionally lower crop forecast plus a downward revision in imports—all medium/short grain—more than offset a larger carryin. On the use side, USDA cut 2004/05 exports 7 million cwt to 107 million based on continued import restrictions by Turkey and expectations of greater competition in the European Union rice market. Forecasts for both long and combined medium/short grain U.S. exports were lowered this month. The reduced exports lowered total projected use 3 percent to 227 million cwt. These revisions resulted in a 22-percent increase in the ending stocks forecast to 33.9 million cwt. Despite the boost in ending stocks, the 2004/05 season-average farm price forecast was raised 50 cents on both the high and low end to $6.75-$7.25 per cwt, still below the year earlier revised forecast of $7.48. The upward revision in the 2004/05 price was based on expectations of higher global trading prices.

The first survey-based projection of the 2004/05 U.S. rice crop pegs rough production at a record 221.6 million hundredweight (cwt), down fractionally from last month’s forecast but more than 11 percent above a year earlier. This month’s downward revision is based on a weaker yield. At 6,680 pounds per acre—the highest on record—the 2004/05 average yield is up 35 pounds from a year earlier. Planted area remains forecast at 3.35 million acres, up almost 11 percent from a year earlier.
Long grain accounts for all of this month’s downward revision in production. Long grain production is forecast at 160.9 million cwt, down 2 percent from last month’s forecast but 8 percent larger than a year earlier. Combined medium/short grain production is projected at 60.7 million cwt, up 3 percent from last month’s forecast and 21 percent larger than a year earlier.
This month, USDA presented its first production forecasts by State for the 2004/05 U.S. rice crop. Production is projected higher in 2004/05 in all reported States except Mississippi. California accounts for the largest share of the year-to-year production increase. California’s 2004/05 crop is projected at a record 48.4 million cwt, more than 25 percent larger than a year earlier, with expanded acreage accounting for most of the increase. The yield is up about 4 percent. Last year, California experienced severe weather problems that reduced its rice production. The Arkansas rice crop is projected at 101.7 million cwt, up 6 percent from a year earlier and the second highest on record. Larger plantings account for most of the production increase. The yield—projected at 6,650 pounds per acre—is the highest on record.

Total supplies for 2004/05 are projected at 260.9 million cwt, fractionally below last month’s forecast but 8 percent larger than a year earlier and the second highest on record. This month, the weaker crop projection plus a reduced import forecast more than offset a larger carryin. Beginning stocks are projected at 24.8 million cwt, up 4 percent from last month’s forecast but still down 7 percent from a year earlier. Imports are forecast at 14.5 million cwt, down more than 3 percent from last month’s forecast and more than 9 percent below the 2003/04 record. Medium/short grain accounts for all of both this month’s downward revision in imports and the year-to-year decline. Most U.S. medium/short grain imports are purchased by Puerto Rico.

Total use for 2004/05 is projected at 227.1 million cwt, down 3 percent from last month but nearly 5 percent above a year earlier. Exports account for all of the month-to-month reduction in total use. Exports are projected at 107 million cwt, down 7 million from last month’s forecast but still 6 percent larger than a year earlier and the second highest on record. This month’s export reduction was based on continued import restrictions by Turkey as well as expectations of greater competition in the European Union (EU). On an annual basis, larger domestic supplies, lower prices, and expectations of a much smaller price difference over major Asian competitors are behind projections of a substantial U.S. export expansion.
Rough rice exports are projected at 35 million cwt, down 2 million from last month’s forecast and more than 1 percent below the 2003/04 revised forecast. Combined milled and brown rice exports (on a rough-rice basis) are projected at 72 million cwt, down 5 million cwt from last month but 9 percent larger than a year earlier. Expanded exports of milled and brown rice in 2004/05 are based on expectations that the United States will increase shipments to Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East, regions where the U.S. typically faces stiff competition with Asian exporters. By class, both long and combined medium/short grain export forecasts were lowered this month.
Total domestic and residual use remains projected at 120.1 million cwt, more than 3 percent larger than a year earlier. Food, industrial, and residual use remains projected at 116 million cwt, nearly 4 percent larger than a year earlier. Projected seed use is unchanged at 4.1 million cwt, a drop of more than 1 percent from a year earlier.
Ending stocks for 2004/05 are projected at 33.9 million cwt, up 22 percent from last month’s forecast and nearly 37 percent larger than a year earlier. The resulting stocks-to-use ratio of 11.4 percent is up fractionally from last month and slightly higher than a year earlier.
MGR Archive 14.8.2004
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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