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Kazakhstan wheat production
USDA, August 13, 2004
Kazakhstan’s MY2004/05 wheat production is forecast is 11.5 MMT assuming normal weather conditions for the rest of the season. Dry and hot weather during the sowing campaign in some northern regions affected germination on 200,000 hectares. However, specialists consider current crop conditions normal. The winter wheat harvest has started in the south. Average yields in Jambul, Chimkent and Almaty regions are at 2.0-2.5 ton per hectare.
However, these regions do not play a significant role in wheat production due to the insignificant area planted (about 700,000 hectares) and poor quality of grain produced. Kazakhstan’s MY2003/04 wheat production was officially reported at 11.5 MMT. However, grain traders and Ministry of Agriculture specialists estimate MY2003/04 wheat production at 500,000 –1.0 MMT less than officially reported.
They assume that regional Governors provided higher production results in order to obtain more subsidies for fuel, seeds and farm credits from the Government.

MY2003/04 total wheat consumption has been slightly increased to 6.8 MMT compared with the previous year.

Kazakhstan’s MY2003/04 wheat exports declined from 5.5 MMT to 4.5 MMT due to unofficial restrictions established by the GOK. Since January 2004 the State Railroad Company provided only a limited number of railcars for grain exports in order to control rising wheat prices and avoid wheat shortages. As a result, wheat exports declined from 742,000 MT in November 2003 to 163,000 MT in January 2004.
However, official wheat exports in MY2003/04 were 3.6 MMT while wheat flour exports were 500,000 MT (625,000 in wheat equivalent). Also, unrecorded wheat exports are estimated at about 200,000-300,000 MT. Major importers in MY2003/04 were Ukraine (1.8 MMT), Russia (972,000 MT) and Azerbaijan (647,000 MT).
Kazakhstan’s MY 2004/05 wheat exports are expected to be 5.5 MMT due to higher anticipated production and better grain quality. Grain traders expect that the primary customers in MY2004/05 will remain CIS countries and Iran.

Kazakhstan’s average export prices for 3-class wheat, which is approximately equal to U.S. standards for HRW #2, increased significantly from $115 per ton in September 2003 to $200 per ton in May 2004. Sharp price increases occurred due to good demand in Ukraine and Russia and smaller supplies in Kazakhstan. Domestic prices for wheat increased from 10,500 KZT (1$=150 KZT) in September 2003 to 22,000 KZT (1$=136 KZT) per ton in May 2004.
Since January 2004 the GOK limited wheat exports and sold about 900,000 MT of wheat on domestic market with a fixed price of $160 per ton in order to wheat prices. Specialists expect that wheat export prices will slightly lower at the beginning of MY2004/05 due to the start of the harvest and larger anticipated crops in Russia and Ukraine.
MGR Archive 14.8.2004
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