Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
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Wheat prices hit as sterling strengthens against euro
Business, June 2, 204
Growers were warned last autumn, as grain prices reached a seven-year high, that it might not last. "Volatility", they were told, would be the key word when planning and budgeting.

They might not have expected that to mean a drop of about £30 a tonne for wheat since the start of this year.

Growers with an eye on the market will be aware of the slump, but the Home Grown Cereals Authority confirms it by noting that the price of feed wheat was down another £6 per tonne last week. The futures price for July delivery fell £5, to £78 per tonne, with the November position down £2.20 to £71.90; in early January this year some feed wheat in Scotland was traded at £110.

Prices in early June are scarcely £80 per tonne, says the HGCA, and in May the trading price of old crop wheat dropped £16.50. Don’t rub it in, said one grower yesterday, but in January wheat could have been sold forward for November at £85.50 per tonne and feed barley for about £90. A November futures price for barley now is £75- £77.

Sterling appreciation against the euro, by almost 10 per cent, has been a main factor in the slump. Last December the euro was worth almost 71p, today it is about 66p.

Yields from this year’s European harvest could add to the volatility in the coming months. The estimate for an EU-25 wheat harvest - 25 member states now in the same grain basket since enlargement at the beginning of May - has been increased slightly to 119.4 million tonnes, with barley production also forecast to rise by 800,000 tonnes to 58.1 million.

Black Sea countries and ports can also exert considerable influence on European Union prices and this year’s Ukraine wheat harvest has been estimated at 14.4 million tonnes, compared to last year’s disastrous 3.6 million tonnes caused by bad weather.

Better weather has improved prospects for wheat production in Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, with their combined total forecast to almost double from last year’s 5.9 million tonnes.

Although world grain stocks are at the lowest level for more than 20 years, the US Department of Agriculture forecasts that world wheat production this year could increase by 39 million tonnes to more than 588 million and coarse grains by 34 million tonnes to almost 930 million. But with world demand increasing year on year, stocks of all cereals are expected to fall again during 2004-5.
MGR Archive 3.6.2004
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