Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
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US and Global Wheat outlook 2004/05
USDA, May 11, 2004
The 2004/05 outlook for U.S. wheat is for a significant decline in production, lower exports, and marginally lower ending stocks. Total production is projected down 11 percent from 2003/04 to 2,080 million bushels due to lower area and yields. Today's survey-based forecast of winter wheat production released by NASS is 9 percent below a year earlier because of lower seedings, higher abandonment, and lower yields. Durum and other spring production is projected lower due to smaller seedings reported in the Prospective Plantings report, the assumed 10- year average harvested-to-planted ratios, and trend yields. The smaller total wheat crop is partially offset by larger beginning stocks, but supplies are still down around 8 percent from 2003/04.

Projected U.S. use declines 9 percent in 2004/05 because of smaller exports. A return to average flour extraction rates boosts food use by 15 million bushels. Wheat feed and residual use is projected to decline by 25 million bushels. Projected exports of 975 million bushels are 195 million bushels below 2003/04 because larger exportable supplies are expected in the EU-25, Ukraine, and Russia. U.S. ending stocks are projected down 27 million bushels from a year earlier, and remain relatively low at 499 million bushels. The projected price range for 2004/05 is $3.25 to $3.85 per bushel, compared with an estimated $3.40 for 2003/04.

The 2004/05 global wheat outlook is for further decline in stocks despite increased production. Prospects are dominated by expected dramatic production increases for the EU-25, Ukraine, India, and Russia. Global wheat production is projected to rise 39 million tons. The EU-25 crop is projected up 20 million tons to a record 126.5 million tons. Ukraine's crop is up more than 11 million tons from last year's crop of just 3.6 million tons and Russia's is projected to increase nearly 6 million tons (17 percent). India's crop is projected to rise by nearly 7 million tons to 72 million tons. World wheat imports are projected to decline 2 million tons. Part of the decline can be traced to projected reductions in the wheat imports of the EU-25 and Ukraine. However, China's wheat imports are projected to rise 5 million tons. Larger feed-quality wheat supplies are not expected to result in substantial increases in imports by some Asian countries due to continuing high ocean freight costs. Although global stocks are projected to shrink, the combined stocks of the four traditional non-U.S. wheat exporters are projected up by nearly 5 million tons (20 percent). Expanding competitor stocks limit the export prospects of the United States.
MGR Archive 13.5.2004
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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