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Kenya Wheat Update Report
USDA, April 23, 2004
Kenya recorded 196,000 tons of wheat for MY 2003/04 against an estimated annual consumption of 700,000 tons. The shortfall is met by imports from different origins. A modest increase of 197,000 tons of wheat is forecast for MY 2004/05. The increase is attributed to favorable weather conditions.

Normal to relatively abundant rains has been reported in the past one month in most of the wheat growing areas in Kenya. Precipitation has been generally widespread in the main wheat growing areas of Uasin Gishu, Narok, Nakuru and Timau Districts. Despite localized floods in some of these areas, growing conditions are generally favorable for crop development.

Harvesting of the 2003 wheat crop has been completed and aggregate wheat production is provisionally estimated at 2.18 million bags (196,000 tons) for MY 2003/04. Assuming that rainfall will be about average for the remaining part of the growing season wheat output for MY 2004/05 is forecast at 2.19 million bags (197,100 tons).

For the season just concluded wheat producer prices averaged 242 – 256 USD per ton for the hard wheat and 206 – 227 USD per ton for soft wheat. Wheat prices are forecast to remain within similar ranges for the harvest commencing in July/August, 2004. Presently import prices average 284 USD per ton.

Despite the good prices experienced during the last two years area is unlikely to increase since maize the most commonly switched crop had good prices. Improved husbandry is likely to be effected due to the good prices and a marginal production increase might be recorded.

Kenya produced 196,000 tons against an estimated annual consumption of 700,000 tons (imports and production). The shortfall is met by imports from different origins. Russia and Ukraine appear as promising new origins. Kenya imported 461,000 tons of wheat during 2003, a figure that is expected to increase slightly during 2004 (600,000). Wheat import taxes are 25 %.
MGR Archive 24.4.2004
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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