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Kenyan Maize update
USDA, April 9, 2004
The long rain harvest is complete in most parts of the maize growing areas. The Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) estimates an output of 2.19 million tons, which compares well with normal year long rain averages (2.18 tons). FAS estimate 2 million tons for the long rain crop, a 0.2 million tons increase from the previous estimate primarily due to good production in the main maize producing areas. The good production camouflaged the poor harvest from the marginal agricultural areas.

Some of the main short rain dependent areas received good rains whereas others (i.e. along the coastal strip) have experienced prolonged drought. FAS estimate for the short rain crop (harvesting has commenced in the early planting provinces) remains at 500,000 tons. However, this may e at the high end of short rain production. The likelihood is that the short rain harvest could come in lower when actual harvest occurs. Though the month of January experienced unseasonable rains it is unlikely that the figures will increase, the output levels should be fairly close to trend through the remainder of the 2003/04 marketing year.

FAS total maize production for 2003/04 is projected at 2.5 million tons.

National average maize prices during the month of february have been relatively high ($ 220/mt) as compared to the same time last year ($ 125/mt). The high prices are attributed to reduced supply from neighboring countries and competition from other traders and millers. The prices are forecast to remain relatively firm until February/March with the commencement of the Short rain harvest. This will be temporary as supply shortages are expected to set in April/May. Cross border imports are limited due to the poor production from the neighboring countries and commercial imports from South Africa are unlikely given the high South African prices coupled with 25 % duty. The US is the expected source if commercial imports occur.

Recent National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) price increases to $ 199/mt indicate an increasing possibility of commercial imports in the April – June time frame.

The government of Tanzania is scheduled to import 10,000 tons from Kenya as famine relief aid. A further 10,000 tons may be shipped to Tanzania in March.
MGR Archive 10.4.2004
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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