Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
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India Rice Production Down
USDA, April 8, 2004
Based on recent government estimates, India’s MY 2003/04 rice production is revised down to 88.0 million tons, from the earlier estimate of 89.0 million tons. According to the government’s recently revised estimates, the 2003/04 kharif (fall harvested) rice production was higher at 77.8 million tons, compared to its earlier estimate of 75.1 million tons. The government places the 2004 rabi (spring/summer harvested) rice production at only 10.1 million tons, due to unfavorable weather conditions in growing regions, taking the total 2003/04 production to around 88 million tons. Although this is a 15.2 million ton increase over the drought reduced 2002/03 production of 72.7 million tons, it is below the record rice production of 93.1 million tons in 2001/02.

The projected low carryover stocks would discourage the government from allocating any rice for exports, even unsubsidized (the government’s economic cost of rice is around $267 per metric ton), during this marketing year. The prevailing higher world prices should tempt the private trade to source rice from wherever they can, including the open market. However, the government has already procured most of the surplus from the 2003/04 harvest, leaving very little for the private trade. Hence, the trade is unlikely to be in a position to mop up significant quantities for exports, at least until the 2004/05 crop arrives in the markets in the Fall of 2004. Furthermore, the cost price of rice to the private trade on a FOB basis also would be higher than the prevailing world price, at around $245 – 250 per metric ton (25 percent broken). Another factor speaking against large exports is the continuing appreciation of the Indian rupee, which so far during this calendar year has appreciated by 3.2 percent against the dollar.

Based on shipment data compiled from private sources, exports from January – March 2004 were only around 250,000 metric tons, mostly basmati rice and other rice shipped in liner vessels to Saudi Arabia. Assuming world prices continue to remain strong through the end of CY 2004, India’s CY 2004 rice exports are estimated at 2.5 million tons. If the firm world rice price trend continues even longer, MY 2004/05 and CY 2005 exports are forecast higher at 3 million tons.
MGR Archive 9.4.2004
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Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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