Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
Australia Medium Grain Rice #1 $ N/A    Egypt 101 #2 $760    Egypt 178 #2 Rice $730    EU Prices Baldo €660    EU Prices LG-A Ariete 5% €550    EU Prices MG Lotto 5% €500    EU Prices RG Balilla 5% €500    Russia Rapan $ 700    USA Jupiter Paddy $375    USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480    USA Jupiter Rice $630    USA Calrose #1 $830   

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Barley - World Outlook in 2004 - 2005
World barley production is expected to increase from 2003-2004, as higher production in Europe and Canada more than offsets reduced production in the US and Australia. Production in the Middle East, except for Saudi Arabia, and North Africa is forecast to decrease from 2003-2004 when very good crops were harvested in these regions. With much of the reduced carry-in stocks offset by higher production, world barley supplies are expected to be close to 2003-2004. However, exportable supplies are forecast to increase from 2003-2004, due to reduced feed demand for barley in Europe. Higher import demand for feed barley in the Middle East and stronger import demand for malting barley in China and, to a lesser degree, in the US are expected to drive world trade up. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase slightly.

In Europe, EU barley production is expected to increase by about 7% to 50 Mt due to increased area seeded to barley, as a result of the decrease in the set-aside requirements from 10% to 5% to boost EU grain production. Barley production in the FSU and Eastern Europe is forecast to recover from the weather-affected 2003-2004 to about 35 Mt and 9 Mt, respectively. Increased production in Europe is expected to more than offset lower carry-in stocks of 7.7 Mt for 2004-2005 versus 16.2 Mt for 2003-2004. As a result, barley supplies in Europe are forecast to increase. Demand in Europe is expected to decrease as barley is replaced by other feed grains, such as wheat and corn which experienced a significant decrease in production in 2003-2004. Barley exports from Europe, especially feed barley exports from the FSU, are forecast to increase, which is expected to pressure world feed barley prices significantly. The EU is expected to compete more aggressively with Australia and Canada in the world malting barley market, such as China, which depresses two row malting barley prices. EU barley subsidies are not expected to play a major role in the world barley market in 2004-2005.

In Australia, barley production is expected to decrease slightly from 2003-2004 while supplies are expected to increase due to significantly higher carry-in stocks. Larger Australian barley supplies are forecast to continue to depress world barley, especially malting barley, prices in 2004-2005.

For barley, Canadian production is forecast to increase by 7%. Farmers are forecast to decrease area seeded to barley by 3%, as area is shifted away from grains to oilseeds, following the strong oilseed prices in 2003-2004. Average yields and the percentage that is harvested for grain are expected to increase moderately. The area of barley crop that is harvested for fodder is expected to be below the average in recent history. Average yields are expected to increase by 8% from 2003-2004, but remain below trend due to the dry subsoil conditions. Supply is expected to increase by about 8% from 2003-2004 to 14.9 Mt as a result of increased production and higher carry-in stocks. Domestic use of feed barley is expected to rise due to increased supplies and higher feed demand from the cattle and hog industries. Imports of US corn are forecast to increase from the low level for 2003-2004, but still be significantly lower than the average for the last three years when US corn imports reached a historical high. Exports of feed barley are projected to decrease from 2003-2004, due to stronger domestic demand and diminishing price premium for offshore sales over the domestic market. Exports of malting barley are expected to increase as a result of increased production and improved quality in Canada and stronger import demand from China. Carry-out stocks are expected to increase to 1.8 Mt, from 1.6 Mt in 2003-2004, but remain historically low.

Off-Board feed barley prices are forecast to average $125/t (I/S Lethbridge), the same as for 2003-2004, as much of the increase in supplies is absorbed by domestic feed demand and exports. The CWB final pool return for 2004-2005 for No.1 CW feed barley is forecast by AAFC to decrease by $14/t from the Dec. 2003 PRO to $145/t I/S VC/SL. The pool return for Special Select Two-Row designated barley is forecast to decrease from 2003-2004, to $190/t, due mainly to increased world supplies. The pool return for Special Select Six-Row designated barley is forecast to decrease to $180/t. The premium for two-row malting barley over six-row is expected to be lower than in 2003-2004, as six-row prices are less pressured than two-row prices by increased supplies overseas and US imports of malting barley are expected to remain strong.
MGR Archive 30.3.2004
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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