Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
Australia Medium Grain Rice #1 $ N/A    Egypt 101 #2 $760    Egypt 178 #2 Rice $730    EU Prices Baldo €660    EU Prices LG-A Ariete 5% €550    EU Prices MG Lotto 5% €500    EU Prices RG Balilla 5% €500    Russia Rapan $ 700    USA Jupiter Paddy $375    USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480    USA Jupiter Rice $630    USA Calrose #1 $830   

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Wheat World Outlook in 2004-2005
World wheat (including durum) area harvested for 2004-2005 is forecast by AAFC to increase by about 4% to 216 million hectares (Mha), slightly above the 5-year average, largely due to higher area in Russia and Ukraine. Assuming normal growing conditions and average yields, production is forecast to rise by 7% to 590 Mt, the highest since 1998-1999, due to higher yields in the EU, Eastern Europe and FSU from the below-normal crops of 2003-2004. Supplies will be relatively unchanged with lower carry-in stocks offsetting the higher production.

World wheat consumption is projected to increase slightly from 2003-2004 due to greater feed use in the EU, Eastern Europe and FSU resulting from higher production. Human food use of wheat is expected to be similar to 2003-2004, at 488 Mt, while the use of wheat for animal feed is expected to rise by 5%, to about 108 Mt. World trade is expected to increase slightly, to 100 Mt, but remain below the 5-year average of 107 Mt. Non-traditional exporters, such as Russia and Ukraine, which exported record quantities in 2002-2003 and depressed world prices that year, declined sharply in 2003-2004, and are not expected to significantly increase their market share in 2004-2005. World carry-out stocks are projected to decrease by 5%, to 121 Mt, the lowest since 1981-1982 and well below the 5-year average of 181 Mt.

US winter wheat seeded area has decreased by 3% for 2004-2005, to 17.6 Mha, with the largest decreases being to hard red winter (HRW) and soft white winter wheat, due to dry conditions in the fall, in both the Great Plains and Pacific Northwest states, resulting in poor germination. Soft red winter (SRW) area is up slightly, due to strong wheat prices and production problems with soybeans in 2003-2004. Seeded areas of spring wheat and durum are forecast by AAFC to decline slightly. Program payments under the Farm Security and Rural Investment Act (FSRIA) are expected to support higher area. Assuming normal abandonment, harvested area of all wheat is forecast to decline by 7%, to 19.9 Mha. Production is forecast by AAFC to decrease by 14%, to 54.9 Mt {about 2.02 billion bushels (Gbu)}. A slightly below trend yield of 41 bushels per acre (bu/ac) has been assumed because the HRW wheat crop is currently in relatively poor condition, due to a lack of precipitation. However, total wheat supplies are expected to decrease by only 9% due to higher carry-in stocks.

EU wheat production is forecast to recover by 13% from 2003-2004, to 103 Mt, assuming normal yields, well above the 5-year average of 97 Mt. Carry-in stocks are forecast to decline by 41%. As a result, EU wheat supplies are expected to increase by 6% for 2004-2005.

DURUM

World

Durum production is forecast to decline by 2%, to 35.6 Mt, with increased production in Canada and the EU offset by lower production in North Africa and the US. The decreased production will be partly offset by higher major-exporter carry-in stocks, and world supplies (including major-exporter stocks only) are expected to be down by 1% at 38.5 Mt. Trade is forecast to increase by 7%, to 6.2 Mt, assuming a return to lower normal yields and increased import demand from North Africa, the major durum importing region.
However, world consumption is projected at 34.6 Mt, and carry-out stocks in the major exporting countries are forecast to increase by 31%, to 3.9 Mt, above the 5-year average of 3.6 Mt.

PRICES: WHEAT AND DURUM

Although world wheat stocks are expected to decline slightly, stocks in the five major wheat exporting countries, Canada, the US, the EU, Australia and Argentina, are forecast to increase by 6% by the end of 2004-2005, to 36 Mt. EU carry-out stocks are expected to rise by 8% to 8.5 Mt. US stocks are forecast to increase marginally to about 15.4 Mt, and the US stock-to-use ratio will rise to 27%, from 24% in 2003-2004. As a result, world wheat prices are expected to decline in 2004-2005.

US Hard Winter Ordinary (HWO) wheat prices, free on board (FOB) US Gulf, are forecast to decline to about US$140-150 per tonne (/t) for 2004-2005 (for the Canadian August-July crop year), compared to an estimated US$150-160/t for 2003-2004, and US$161/t in 2002-2003. The price for US Dark Northern Spring wheat with 14% protein (DNS 14), FOB Pacific Northwest, is forecast at US$165-175/t, down by about US$5/t from 2003-2004.
Premiums for spring wheat on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange versus HRW wheat on the Kansas City Board of Trade are forecast to increase, assuming a decrease in US and Canadian spring wheat production in 2004-2005. Protein premiums are expected to rise as well, assuming a return to normal protein levels in the US and Canadian spring wheat crops from the higher than normal levels of 2003-2004. High protein Canada Western Red Spring (CWRS) wheat is generally priced competitively with US DNS 14 wheat, while lower protein CWRS and Canada Prairie Spring (CPS) wheat are usually priced competitively with US HWO.

World durum prices are expected to decline in 2003-2004, due to rising stocks in the major exporting countries. Supplies in the major exporting countries are expected to rise by 9%, to 19.5 Mt, versus the 5-year average of 18.8 Mt. World import demand is expected to increase due to decreased production in North Africa, but this will be partly offset by increased production in the EU. The US No.3 Hard Amber Durum (HAD) price, FOB St. Lawrence, is forecast at US$170-180/t (August-July), versus US$180-190/t in 2003-2004.

Export subsidies are not expected to be a significant factor in the world wheat market in 2004-2005. The US has not used the Export Enhancement Program since June of 1995, and continues to make use of credit and food aid programs to stimulate exports, with loan deficiency payments (LDP) used to support farm prices. EU stocks remain relatively low, so that export subsidies are not expected to be aggressive, even with expected increased production. The value of the euro against the US dollar will be a major factor in determining the need for export subsidies.

The average US wheat LDP for 2003-2004 to-date on 21% of the crop has been US$0.18/bu, versus US$0.16/bu in 2002-2003 on only 6% of the crop, due to lower average farm prices. LDP are expected to increase further in 2004-2005, due to lower prices. The loan rate is US$2.80/bu, the same as 2003-2004.

CANADA

Non-durum wheat seeded area is expected to decrease by 4% in 2004, due to relatively low wheat prices in 2003-2004 compared to oilseeds. Production is forecast to decrease marginally, to 19.1 Mt, assuming near-normal yields of 37 bu/ac. The smaller production will be offset by higher carry-in stocks, and supplies are forecast to be relatively unchanged, at 23.3 Mt. Domestic use is projected to increase by 5%, due to greater feed use, assuming a return to normal quality in the 2004 crop. Exports are expected to decline by 2%, to 12.3 Mt, with the largest declines in Ontario wheat. Carry-out stocks are projected to be unchanged at an historically low level of 4.2 Mt, versus the 5-year average of 5.5 Mt.

Durum seeded area is projected to increase by 4%, due to continued premiums over spring wheat in 2003-2004. Production is forecast to rise by 22%, to 5.2 Mt, assuming a return to a near-normal yield of 31 bu/ac, from the below-normal level of 26 bu/ac in 2003. Carry-in stocks are projected to rise by 2%, and durum supplies would increase by 17%, to 6.9 Mt, the highest since 2000-2001. Despite larger supplies, exports are projected to rise by only 6%, to 3.6 Mt, since world import demand is expected to increase by only 0.4 Mt and production in the EU is forecast to increase, resulting in increased competition for export markets. Carry-out stocks are forecast to rise by 35%, to 2.3 Mt, versus the 5-year average of 2.0 Mt.

Ontario winter wheat seeded area is estimated by Statistics Canada to have declined by 25%, to 0.3 Mha, due to lower wheat prices and a late soybean harvest, which prevented winter wheat from being planted. Production is forecast by AAFC to fall by 30%, to 1.4 Mt, with exports falling from a projected record 1.1 Mt in 2003-2004 to 0.7 Mt in 2004-2005.

AAFC forecasts the 2004-2005 Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) pool returns for No.1 CWRS wheat with 11.5% protein at $180/t, in-store Vancouver or St. Lawrence (I/S VC/SL), $7/t below the 2003-2004 CWB December Pool Return Outlook (PRO). However, protein premiums are expected to rise and pool returns for No.1 CWRS with 13.5% protein are projected at $195/t I/S VC/SL, compared to $196/t in 2003-2004. Pool returns for No.1 Canada Western Amber Durum 11.5% protein are forecast by AAFC at $190/t I/S VC/SL, compared to the 2003-2004 CWB PRO of $209/t. The durum premium over spring wheat is projected at only $10/t, the lowest since 1992-1993.
MGR Archive 30.3.2004
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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