Developing Countries Will Lead Global Rice Import Growth in 2013-22, Says USDA Rice growers positive California MG prices are UP Russia MG Harvest coming to end Egypt open rice exports Vietnam’s rice export in tough competition with India Thai rice exports in May Rise Above Target This Year Viet-Nam Rice exports likely to fall this year
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Indonesia - Soyabean production annual
Soybean imports are forecast to rebound to 1.36 million tons in 2003/04 and to reach 1.40 million tons in 2004/05. The U.S. is expected to remain the dominant soybean supplier. As a consequence of the recent Avian Influenza outbreak in Indonesia, 2003/04 soybean meal imports are forecast to decline 20 percent to 1.36 million tons; however, imports are expected to return to 1.43 million tons in 2004/05.
Although several factors continue to limit growth of soybean production in Indonesia, the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) is still striving to boost production. In 2004, MOA plans to subsidize prices of seeds and fertilizer for soybean production. With this assistance, MOA hopes that yields can eventually reach more than 1.2 tons/ha. Furthermore, MOA expects Indonesia to become self-sufficient in soybeans by 2006. However, this expectation is too optimistic, as agronomic conditions are unsuitable for growing soybeans in many regions of Indonesia. Soybean production during marketing year (MY) 2003/04 (Oct 03 – Sept 04) is expected to total 820,000 tons, a modest 5 percent increase compared to MY 2002/03. MY 2004/05 production is forecast at 840,000 tons.

Breaking an upward trend, consumption of soybean products (in the form of tofu and tempeh) was down about 10 percent to 2.08 million tons in MY 2002/03 due to a significant increase in wholesale bean prices. The local price increase stemmed from both a doubling of freight costs from the U.S. as well as higher U.S. soybean prices. In addition, it is suspected that consumers substituted poultry meat and eggs, whose prices were more stable in 2003, for soybeans. However, as a result of the Avian Influenza outbreak, poultry consumption in MY 2003/04 is expected to decline; thus, soybean consumption is forecast to increase 4 percent to 2.16 million tons, and continue growing to 2.2 million tons in MY 2004/05.

Total soybean imports during MY 2002/03 were down about 10 percent to 1.27 million tons. (Note: Imports in CY 2002 totaled 1.43 million tons and 1.23 million tons in 2003.) This decline is attributed to high stock levels, significant price increases, lower demand, and slightly higher domestic production. Imports were strong during the first quarter of MY 2002/03, but when bean prices and freight costs increased, imports slowed. With both the U.S. BSE case and Avian Influenza having an unpredictable impact on the market, traders are adopting a “wait and see” approach to soybean purchases. Reflecting expectations for a rebound in demand for tofu and tempe, soybean imports are forecast to increase 10 percent to 1.36 million tons and reach 1.4 million tons in MY 2004/05.

U.S. soybeans are expected to continue dominating imports, holding a 97 percent market share, with the remaining share being met by imports from South America. The GOI continues to discuss the possibility of raising the import duty for soybean from zero to 30 percent.
MGR Archive 26.2.2004
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Russia Rapan $ 700
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USA Calrose #1 $830
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