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Kazakhstan Wheat Update
USDA
Summary

Kazakhstan’s wheat production in 2003 is expected to remain unchanged from the previous year. At the same time, exports will increase by one million tons over MY 2002/03 with higher demand from Russia, Ukraine and other neighboring countries. As a result, the government of Kazakhstan may impose wheat quotas in order to ensure sufficient wheat for the Kazakh market and prevent disruptive price increases. Ukraine suffered significant economic and political problems in Ukraine due to a similar situation last year

Summary

Kazakhstan’s wheat production in 2003 is expected to remain unchanged from the previous year. At the same time, exports will increase by one million tons over MY 2002/03 with higher demand from Russia, Ukraine and other neighboring countries. As a result, the government of Kazakhstan may impose wheat quotas in order to ensure sufficient wheat for the Kazakh market and prevent disruptive price increases. Ukraine suffered significant economic and political problems in Ukraine due to a similar situation last year.

Production

Official reports indicate that Kazakhstan harvested approximately 12.0 MMT during 2003, virtually unchanged from 2002. Despite the cold spring and wet summer, grain quality is considered to be better than the previous year. Specialists estimate that 75 percent of the crop is graded as Class 3 with gluten content of more than 26 percent. Consumption Consumption estimates for MY2002/03 were increased due to higher than anticipated consumption in southern regions. Specialists assume that higher consumption is partly caused by higher demand and prices for wheat products in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan has a relatively open border with these countries and Uzbek and Kyrgyz citizens can purchase wheat products in Kazakh retail stores and cross the border without any records by the customs. The domestic consumption forecast for MY2003/04 has also been increased to 6.5 MMT due to higher wheat prices in Russia, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. According to the State Agency of Statistics, wheat and products consumption in July-September 2003 reached 1.5 MMT. That is 500,000 MT higher than for the same period last year. Consumption significantly increased in East-Kazakhstan, Pavlodar, North Kazakhstan and Jambul regions, which are the border regions with Russia and Kyrgyzstan. Production Official reports indicate that Kazakhstan harvested approximately 12.0 MMT during 2003, virtually unchanged from 2002. Despite the cold spring and wet summer, grain quality is considered to be better than the previous year. Specialists estimate that 75 percent of the crop is graded as Class 3 with gluten content of more than 26 percent.
Consumption

Consumption estimates for MY2002/03 were increased due to higher than anticipated consumption in southern regions. Specialists assume that higher consumption is partly caused by higher demand and prices for wheat products in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan has a relatively open border with these countries and Uzbek and Kyrgyz citizens can purchase wheat products in Kazakh retail stores and cross the border without any records by the customs. The domestic consumption forecast for MY2003/04 has also been increased to 6.5 MMT due to higher wheat prices in Russia, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. According to the State Agency of Statistics, wheat and products consumption in July-September 2003 reached 1.5 MMT. That is 500,000 MT higher than for the same period last year. Consumption significantly increased in East-Kazakhstan, Pavlodar, North Kazakhstan and Jambul regions, which are the border regions with Russia and Kyrgyzstan.
MGR Archive 4.1.2004
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Region Type Price  
Russia Rapan $ 700
USA Jupiter Rice $630
USA Calrose #1 $830
USA Calrose #1 Paddy $480
EU Prices Baldo €660
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